- Umthamo we-solar ofakiwe we-PV wase-US wanda wafinyelela ku-161 GW DC ngoSepthemba 2023-ekupheleni kwengezwe ngo-6.5 GW DC ku-Q3/2023
- I-Utility-scale ihole izengezo ezingaphezu kuka-4 GW DC, ilandelwe yi-1.8 GW DC engxenyeni yokuhlala.
- Ukusalela emuva kokudayiswa kuyasulwa eCalifornia; ingxenye yokuhlala yelanga cishe izokhula kakhulu kuze kube nguQ1/2024
- I-US kulindeleke ukuthi iphume ngo-2023 ngokukhula konyaka okungama-55% cishe nge-33 GW DC, kodwa ikusasa alibukeki lithembisa kakhulu.
Izinqubomgomo ezihlanzekile zombuso kulindeleke ukuthi zigqugquzele i-US ukuthi yandise umthamo wayo wokufakwa kwe-solar PV ngo-55% ngo-2023 ngerekhodi eliphezulu elicishe libe ngu-33 GW DC, ngokusho kweSolar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) kanye noWood Mackenzie. Kodwa-ke, eminyakeni emi-5 ezayo, babikezela ukukhula okumaphakathi konyaka okungu-14% okulindeleke ukuthi kube nokuphazamiseka kokuxhuma kanye namandla okudlulisela ukudlala i-spoilsport.
Imakethe ikhule ngo-6.5 GW DC ngo-Q3/2023, okukhombisa ukukhuphuka kwe-YoY ngama-35% kanye nokukhula ngo-16% ngaphezu kuka-5.6 GW DC ngo-Q2/2023, amanothi amabili ku-US Solar Market Insight Q4 2023 (bheka i-US Kufakwe 5.6 GW DC New Solar In Q2/2023).
Iningi lezengezo ku-Q3 kulo nyaka zivela ku- ingxenye yesikali sosizo engaphezulu kuka-4 GW DC, emele ukukhula kwe-58% YoY ngenkathi ihlaselwa izinselele ze-supply chain. Kusukela ekuqaleni konyaka, le ngxenye isivele ikhiphe irekhodi lomthamo we-12 GW DC ngenxa yokuhlukahluka kwabahlinzeki kanye nokukhululwa kwamamojula aboshwe yiCustoms and Border Protection (CBP).
Ngenkathi ezinye izifunda zigqolozele ukweqiwa kwamamojula namuhla, izintengo zamamojula zehle zafika ku-$0.14 zaya ku-$0.15/W. Uma kuqhathaniswa, i-US iye yavinjelwa kusukela ku-dynamics yamanani, chaza abalobi bombiko, njengoba ngaphansi kwe-0.1% yamamojula afikile evela e-China kulo nyaka ngenxa yemisebenzi yokulwa nokulahla kanye ne-countervailing (AD / CVD), Isigaba 201 kanye neSigaba 301.
Cishe u-80% wamamojula elanga esikalini esisetshenziswayo sase-US avela eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia. Njengoba isidingo singaphezu kwabahlinzeki be-tier I, izintengo zingaphezu kwamanani amanani kwamanye amazwe, ngokombiko. Noma kunjalo, imboni yelanga ayikhathazeki ngokuhlinzekwa kwamamojula, kodwa ikhathazekile mayelana nezikhathi zokuhola zemishini kagesi njengama-transformer kanye nama-circuit breaker-voltage high.
Abahlaziyi baveza ukuthi, “Lokhu sekuvele kwenyukile amanani entengo ye-balance of system (BOS) ye-utility-scale-scale solar. Njengoba kungekho zimpawu zokuhlehla kwalesi simo, silindele ukuthi ukutholakala kwemishini kagesi kube ngenye yezinto ezinciphisa ukukhula kokusetshenziswa kwamandla elanga eminyakeni embalwa ezayo.”
The ingxenye yokuhlala ikhule ngo-12% YoY, ngo-1.8 GW wokufakwa kwe-DC phakathi naleso sikhathi, eqhutshwa kakhulu ngu-735 MW DC e-California, njengoba amaphrojekthi asalela emuva eza ku-inthanethi adayiswa ngaphambi kwe-net switching billing maphakathi no-April 2023. Ngokuhambisana nalokhu kukhula okulindelekile, ababhali bemibiko bakhombe ukukhula konyaka okungu-13% kule ngxenye. 'Ukusalela emuva okukhulu' kokuthengiswa kulindeleke ukuthi kuqhubekisele ukukhula kokufakwayo okuzohlala ku-Q1/2024.
Uma umsebenzi osemva komile, ingxenye yokuhlala izophinde yehle okufanele ibe ngasekuqaleni- kuze kube maphakathi no-2024. Ngo-2024, lesi sigaba sizobona ukwehla konyaka ngo-12%, kubikezela umbiko.
Ngenkathi ukufakwa kwezinsiza nezindawo zokuhlala kuthuthukisa i-YoY, ye solar commercial kube ngu-3% YoY kanye nokwehla okulandelanayo ngo-6% kuya ku-363 MW DC ngekota yokubika. Isizathu esiyinhloko abahlaziyi abasishoyo ngokwalokhu kwehla kulesi sigaba ukuthi abathuthukisi basusa ukugxila ezimakethe zezwe ezivuthiwe njenge-New York, i-New Jersey ne-Massachusetts, bayise kulezo ezinezindleko eziphansi zentuthuko, umhlaba owengeziwe, isidingo esikhulayo sikagesi kanye nokukhuphuka kwamazinga kagesi.
I-solar yomphakathi, ngakolunye uhlangothi, ibe no-14% YoY kanye nokukhula okuyisicaba ngokuqhathaniswa nekota edlule ngo-274 MW DC, ngenxa yamavolumu aqinile okufakwa e-New York naseMaine. Kodwa-ke, izinkinga zokuxhumanisa zokufakwa okunjalo zihlala ziyisithiyo esikhulu ekukhuleni kwale ngxenye.
Ukuqhubekela phambili, umbiko ubona ukufakwa kwemboni yelanga kwehla ngezinombolo eziphansi kusukela ngo-2026 njengoba ukukhula kuzo zonke izingxenye kuncipha. Ukusuka ku-161 GW okuhlanganisiwe okufakiwe umthamo we-solar PV ekupheleni kukaSepthemba 2023, u-SEIA no-Wood Mackenzie babikezele ukuthi izokhula ibe ngu-377 GW ngo-2028.
"Ukukhula kulindeleke ukuthi kuhambe kancane kusukela ngo-2026 njengoba izinselelo ezahlukene ezifana nezingqinamba zokuxhumanisa ziba zimbi kakhulu," kusho iNhloko yeSolar Research eWood Mackenzie kanye noMbhali Oholayo walo mbiko, uMichelle Davis. “Kubalulekile ukuthi imboni iqhubeke nokusungula izinto ezintsha ukuze ikhulise inani elethwa yi-solar kugridi eyandayo. Ukuguqulwa kokuxhumana, ukwenziwa kwesimanjemanje kokulawula, kanye nokwenyuka kwamazinga okunamathiselwe kwesitoreji kuzoba amathuluzi abalulekile.”
Umbiko ophelele ungathengwa kwaWood Mackenzie's iwebhusayithi.
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