Ihora elilodwa kuya kwamane lokugcinwa kwebhethri endaweni yamandla elanga lingakhuphula kakhulu imali engenayo yesayithi ezindaweni ezinabantu abaningi noma amandla amaningi elanga. Kodwa-ke, inani elingeziwe liyancipha ngamakhono okugcina adlula amahora amane.
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Olayini bamagridi kagesi baya ngokuya babuswa amaphrojekthi kagesi welanga, nengxenye ebalulekile ehlanganisa izinsiza ze-solar-plus-storage (hybrid). Eminyakeni yakamuva, izimakethe ezisizayo e-Texas kanye nesidingo esikhulu sakusihlwa sase-California kube yizinhloso eziyinhloko zokutshalwa kwebhethri.
Njengoba lezi zimakethe zikhula ngokuncintisana kakhulu nezindleko zebhethri ziqhubeka nokwehla, onjiniyela bahlola amathuba amasha okukhulisa inani, njengokubuyisela kabusha izitshalo ezikhona zamandla elanga. Abaholi bemboni abafana ne-NextEra kanye ne-BayWa kabusha baveze ukuthi ukubuyisela kabusha kuzoba umshayeli obalulekile wemali eqhubekela phambili.
Njengoba bekulindelekile, ucwaningo lwathola ukuthi izitshalo zamandla elanga ne-solar eziseduze nezindawo ezidingeka kakhulu, ezibhekana nezingqinamba ekwakhiweni kwamandla amasha futhi zithole amanani aphezulu wamandla, zingafinyelela ukwanda kwemali engenayo. Ukwengeza, izifunda ezinamandla amaningi avuselelekayo (i-VRE), njengelanga nomoya, nazo zizuze ngokungeza isitoreji sebhethri sesikhathi esifushane.
E-Texas, isibonelo, ukugcinwa kwebhethri ngokuvamile kulinganiswa umthamo wehora elilodwa, kuyilapho e-California, kuba cishe amahora amane.
Ezimweni zokumodela ngamanani akhulayo okugcinwa kwamandla abhangqwe nezinsiza zelanga, abacwaningi babone umehluko ophawulekayo. Izitshalo ze-solar ezifundeni zesikhungo sokulayisha zithole izinzuzo ezinkulu zemali engenayo, kuyilapho izifunda ezicebile nge-VRE zibonise ukunyuka kwamaphesenti aphezulu. Lokhu kukhombisa izindleko eziphakeme zamandla ezikhungweni zokulayisha, uma kuqhathaniswa nezindawo ezilawulwa yi-VRE lapho amanani entengo evamise ukucindezelwa, nokho amathuba amakhulu “e-duck curve” akhona.
Ukwenyuka kwamaphesenti abaluleke kakhulu emalini engenayo nge-kilowatt-hora kuqhamuke ekungezeni ukuthuthukiswa kokuqala kwebhethri kwehora elilodwa.
Ezikhungweni zokulayisha, ukuguqula izitshalo ezizimele zibe yi-solar-plus-storage ngesitoreji sehora elilodwa kwenyusa inani lalezo zitshalo ngo-48.8%, lisuka ku-$33.8/MWh laya ku-$50.3/MWh. Ezindaweni ezinothe nge-VRE, lesi simo sagqama nakakhulu: amabhethri ehora elilodwa andise amanani amaphakathi ezitshalo zelanga nezomoya ngo-80.5% kanye no-81.1%, ngokulandelana.
Ucwaningo lwe-EMP luhlanganisa isexwayiso esibalulekile: Imodeli yemali engenayo ithatha “ukubona kusengaphambili okuphelele,” isimo esifanelekile lapho abaqhubi bezitshalo zelanga ne-solar bengakwazi ukubikezela ngokuphelele izikhathi ezingcono kakhulu zokugcina nokukhulula amandla. Eqinisweni, o-opharetha babhekana nokungaqiniseki ekunqumeni izikhathi eziphelele zokushaja nokukhipha.
Ukutholakala kokuthi ngaphezu kwamahora amane okugcina kunikeze imali encane eyengeziwe eyengeziwe kwabamangaza abacwaningi. Ngokwalolu cwaningo, “imali engenayo [imali engenayo ngehora ngalinye nge-kilowatt] isuka emahoreni amahlanu kuya kwayisishiyagalombili yayincane kakhulu (amaphesenti angu-7.3 namaphesenti angu-6.1 elanga nomoya, ngokulandelana).”
Okunye okuphawulekayo okutholakele ukuthi ukubuyisela kabusha isizinda samandla elanga ngokugcina amandla kwawandisa kakhulu amathuba okukhiqiza ugesi phakathi “namahora angu-100 aphezulu okulayisha” onyakeni, ukusuka phansi ukuya ku-20% ngehora elilodwa lokulondoloza ukuya ku-100% ngamahora amahlanu noma ngaphezulu okugcina.
Ababhali baphinde balinganisa ukuhwebelana phakathi kokukhulisa isikhathi eside sebhethri kanye nokwenza kahle imali engenayo yesikhashana, bephawula ukuthi "ukwelashwa okuyinkimbinkimbi kokucekelwa phansi kwebhethri kungavumela ukukhuliswa kwenani elikhulu kubanikazi bemishini yamandla elanga nesitoreji." Kuwo wonke amamodeli ahlukene wokuwohloka kwebhethri, imali engenayo ihluka ngokufika ku-18%.
Ngokuthuthuka kwakamuva kokuphila isikhathi eside kwebhethri, njengezindleko "zeminyaka emihlanu yokuwohloka kweqanda", amandla emali engenayo yalezi zindawo azokhula nakakhulu.
Amazinga aphansi okuwohloka nawo adale amathuba amasha emali engenayo ngokuvumela izikhungo ukuthi zikhokhise kusuka kugridi yamandla ngamanani aphansi ngamahora angewona awelanga. Lawa mandla, manje avunyelwe ngaphansi koMthetho Wokuncishiswa Kokwehla kwamandla emali wase-US, lengeza imali elinganiselwa ku-$0.012/kWh ethubeni lemali engenayo.
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