Ukubheka amathrendi amanje kanye nezinkinga ze-supply chain emkhakheni wezimoto
Imoto ye-atypical ingaqukatha noma yini phakathi kwezingxenye zezingxenye ezingu-15,000 nezingu-25,000 - kuye ngokuthi zilinganiswa kanjani kanye nobunjiniyela bokuklama bezinhlelo zayo ezinkulu. Lokho kuyizinto eziningi zokuhlanganisa futhi zinikeze ubuqotho bomkhiqizo wokugcina. Ngempela, akuwona umsebenzi onzima ukuhlanganisa zonke lezo zingxenye ngokulandelana okufanele. Yonke imoto ekhona iwukuhlonipha ukuhlela, ukuhlela, ubunjiniyela bokukhiqiza nokukhiqiza. Kudala, abakhiqizi bezimoto babehlanganiswe ziqonde phezulu, kodwa leyo ndlela yaholela ekuhlukanisekeni (noma ubani okhumbulayo ukuthi i-Visteon yavelaphi kanye newebhu ephithene yezinkampani ezihlanganisa iGeneral Motors' Automotive Components Group?) nabahlinzeki bezingxenye abangochwepheshe ababengagxila ekuthuthukisweni komkhiqizo futhi basebenze ngokuphumelelayo esikalini esiphezulu kumakhasimende angaphezu kwelilodwa.
Izihlanganisi zezinhlelo ezinkulu zeTier 1 zihlinzeka ngokuqondile kubenzi bezimoto, ngokuvamile besuka ezindaweni zokupaka ezitholakala kalula eduze nendawo yokuhlanganisa izimoto nezindawo zokukhiqiza, kodwa kunezigaba eziningi zabahlinzeki abancane ngaphansi kwesigaba esiphezulu - ngamunye wenza indima ebalulekile endleleni ende esuka ezintweni ezingavuthiwe ukuya emkhiqizweni osuphelile.
Ukuthengwa kwezingxenye zamazwe ngamazwe sekuyindlela evamile yokusebenza yemboni emashumini amaningi eminyaka njengoba ama-OEM nabahlinzeki abakhulu befuna ukuthenga emakethe yomhlaba wonke ukuze bathole izingxenye nezinto ezibonakalayo ezihlangabezana nezilinganiso zekhwalithi ezidingekayo ngezindleko eziphansi. Amabanga (kanye nezindleko) zokuthutha kanye nezinhlelo zokugcinwa kwempahla nakho kuyingxenye yesithombe, kodwa ukusebenza kahle okuphezulu kanye nentuthuko yezobuchwepheshe ekuthuthweni kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kusekele ukukhula okumangalisayo ekuthunyelweni kwezingxenye zamazwe ngamazwe.
Ukukhula kwemboni yezimoto yaseShayina kule minyaka engamashumi amabili edlule kube yimbangela enkulu ekutholeni izingxenye zezimoto emhlabeni wonke, ikakhulukazi lokho okungase kubizwe ngezingxenye ezijwayelekile noma ezithengiswayo ezithengisa kakhulu ngentengo yezindleko. Abahlinzeki baseShayina bahlomule ezinkontilekeni ezinkulu zasendaweni ezithuthukisa umnotho wezinga eliphezulu kanye noxhaso olufihliwe oluphuma ezinhlakeni eziyinkimbinkimbi zobunikazi ezibandakanya abazali be-OEM, amabhizinisi kahulumeni kanye nezitokwe ezihlukene. Ekuqaleni kwawo-2000, abenzi bezimoto base-US, ikakhulukazi, bathuthele ekutholeni izingxenye ezingabizi kakhulu ezivela e-Asia, ngenqubo yokubukela phansi izinkampani ezithile ezinesikhathi eside ezakhiwe endaweni yabahlinzeki bempahla yase-US.
Embulungeni yonke, ukuhwebelana kwamazwe ngamazwe ngemikhiqizo yezimoto - kokubili izimoto eziqediwe nezingxenye zezingxenye - manje kukhulu. Izilinganiso ezihlanganiswe ngu I-GlobalData khombisa iJalimane njengomholi wamazwe omhlaba kakhulu mayelana nokuthunyelwa kwemikhiqizo yemboni yezimoto eziphumayo. Lokho kuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kuboniswa izinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle kanye newebhu ephithene yezimpahla eziphakathi ezisetshenziswa njengokufakwayo kumasistimu ezingxenye acwengisisiwe futhi akhiwe ezigabeni ezihlukene zenqubo yokukhiqiza futhi engathunyelwa ngemikhumbi emingceleni yamazwe ngamazwe izikhathi eziningi.
Esinye isici esibalulekile sesakhiwo samaketango wokuhlinzeka embonini yezimoto ukubaluleka kwefilosofi yokuphathwa kwe-supply chain enciphisa izindleko ze-inventory futhi ithuthukise ukusebenza kahle kwenqubo kanye nezihibe zokuxhumana ngempendulo ukuze kutholakale amazinga athuthukisiwe wekhwalithi. Eyaziwa ngokuthi 'ukukhiqiza okuncane', yaqala ngeToyota futhi ingqikithi yayo ihlanganiswe negama elithi 'isikhathi nje' ukuchaza izindlela nezimiso zokuhlinzeka ngokungenasisekelo. Ukukhuphuka kobuchwepheshe bedijithali nobuxhumene obuhlanganisa zonke izingxenye zenqubo yokukhiqiza nokudayisa kuye kwasekela lezi zindlela zokusebenza kule minyaka eyishumi edlule noma ngaphezulu.
Esikhathini esedlule, izinhlekelele zemvelo kanye nomthelela wazo ogxilile ezindaweni zibe nomthelela ezinkampanini zezimoto futhi zabonisa ubuthakathaka bochungechunge lokuhlinzeka ngezimoto. Ngemuva kokuzamazama komhlaba kwango-2011 kanye ne-tsunami e-Japan, kube nezibonelo ezimbalwa eziphawulekayo zokuphazamiseka. Umkhiqizi wezimoto ezihamba phambili emhlabeni wonke ube nezinkinga mayelana nokuhlinzekwa noma upende obomvu ophuma e-Japan. Izikhukhula eThailand kamuva ngalowo nyaka zabangela ukushoda kwezikrini ze-LCD zokubonisa imininingwane yemoto. Ama-OEM nabathengisi bekufanele balungise ukushoda ngokufanele. Impi yase-Ukraine ikhombisa ukuthi izehlakalo ezingalindelekile ze-geopolitical zingaphazamisa kanjani amaketanga wokuhlinzeka, futhi.
Inselele yama-semiconductors
Zonke izinkampani zaba nomthelela omubi ngqo enkingeni yezempilo yomphakathi yango-2020 futhi ngokungaqondile yimithelela eminingi kumaketanga okuhlinzekwa komhlaba wonke. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukululama ekuthengisweni komhlaba wonke ngo-2021 kwathikazwa kakhulu umphumela obungalindelekile wenkinga ye-Covid ngonyaka owedlule. Njengoba abenzi bezimoto bevala amafekthri ngaphansi kwemiyalo kahulumeni futhi banciphisa kakhulu ama-oda ezingxenye ngo-2020, abakhiqizi bama-semiconductors bathola elinye ibhizinisi elizotholakala ezindaweni ezifana nogesi wabathengi.
Lapho ukubuyisela kabusha izitshalo zezimoto zenyusa ama-oda azo ama-chips engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2021, inkinga yokutholakala okuqinile kwabonakala ngokushesha.
Ukushoda kwe-semiconductor nakho bekungeke kunqotshwe kalula ngenxa yezikhathi ezinde zokuhola ekungezeni umthamo we-chip Foundry phezulu. Ingxenye engekho ebaluleke kakhulu kwezokuphepha noma ngandlela thize ethathwa njengebalulekile kumkhiqizo oqediwe isho ukuthi imigqa ethile yamamodeli ithinteke kakhulu kuneminye. Abenzi bezimoto bangakwazi ukushova ingxube yemakethe kwezinye izimo, kodwa isisho sakudala sasiphinde sibe yiqiniso: Amaketanga omsebenzi mahle/aqinile njengendawo yawo ebuthakathaka kakhulu.
Kuwo wonke umkhakha, izindlela zokuthenga nezinqubo ziyacutshungulwa ngendlela engakaze ibonwe ngaphambili.
Kuyaqapheleka futhi ukuthi kunesici sesakhiwo emsebenzini okusho ukuthi izingcindezi ezithile zokuhlinzekwa kwe-semiconductor cishe zizohlala ziyingozi esikhathini esizayo: okuqukethwe kwe-elekthronikhi okuthuthukisiwe kwezimoto kuyenyuka ngenxa yokufakwa okuhlala kukhuphuka kwezici zobuchwepheshe eziyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu. Lokhu kwenza ezinye izinkampani zithuthele emifelandawonye yamasu nabakhi bama-chip. Lokhu akugcini nje ngokusiza ukuvikela izimpahla zesikhathi esizayo zama-microprocessors abalulekile, kodwa futhi kungasiza ubudlelwano obuzuzisayo bokuthuthukiswa komkhiqizo wesikhathi esizayo kulokho okubonakala kuyingxenye yengxenye ebalulekile.
Ezinye izingcindezi kumaketanga okuhlinzeka zivela kweminye imithombo efana nokushoda kwabasebenzi okungalindelekile kanye namanani aphezulu kakhulu okuthunyelwa kwamabhokisi omhlaba wonke njengoba amanani kagesi enyuke kakhulu.
Inkulumompikiswano ekabili ephikisana nemithombo eminingi
Ukuba ntekenteke ochungechungeni lokuhlinzekwa kwezimoto kuza nokusabalala kwezigaba eziningi, ukugeleza kwemithombo yamazwe ngamazwe kanye nokuthambekela kokuthola indawo eyodwa ukuze kukhuliswe umnotho wesilinganiso kuzo zonke izinhlelo zezimoto zomhlaba wonke. Ezimweni eziningi, lesi sakhiwo sendabuko siphinde sigxiliswe futhi sigxiliswe kusiko lozakwethu abathandwayo kuzo zonke izigaba zokuhlinzeka. Izinzuzo zingase futhi zibandakanye amasistimu abiwe kanye nezindleko zezokuthutha, ngezindleko ezisatshalaliswa kuwo wonke amavolumu kwamanye amamodeli namasistimu futhi.
Ubuchwepheshe buphinde babamba iqhaza ekukhuthazeni ukuthola umsebenzi owodwa njengoba izinkampani - okuhlanganisa lezo ezisezingeni lesi-3 nelesi-4 - ngokujwayelekile zikwazile ukuhlanganisa ubuchwepheshe kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali endaweni eyodwa ezinikele ekukhiqizeni umthamo omkhulu. Izinkinga ziza lapho kukhona okungahambanga kahle abahlela ama-scuppers (umlilo embonini ye-Renesas microprocessors ngonyaka odlule, isibonelo).
Ama-elekthronikhi nezinzwa ziyizibonelo zezingxenye ezibalulekile zama-sub-assembly ezingaba nomthelela omkhulu ezansi nomfula ekukhiqizeni izimoto uma kukhona ukuphazamiseka phezulu komfula. Ukuthola abanye abahlinzeki bempahla enamandla ayisipele ngesikhathi esifushane kakhulu kuyinselele enkulu.
Ukubamba izingxenye ezithile ezigciniwe esitokweni kuhambisana nezindleko futhi kungqubuzana nemigomo eyisiqondiso yokukhiqiza okuncane. Isinqumo singathathwa, vele, ukumunca noma ukucisha noma yiziphi izindleko zokuphazamiseka kwangaphandle uma kwenzeka futhi zenzeka - ekugcineni kuncike ekubalweni kokuhlola ubungozi.
Isipiliyoni seminyaka yamuva sikhomba okungenani izinkampani ezilokhu zibuza umbuzo wokuthi ngabe ukucula kufunwa yini njengoba kwakunjalo. Umhlaba okhungethwe ubungozi obuphezulu nokungaqiniseki mhlawumbe udinga ukusethwa kabusha kwendlela. Ukuphindaphinda phakathi kochungechunge lokunikezela, ngisho noma kusho ukusondela ekwabelaneni nesimbangi, kungase kunikeze isisombululo esingcono - okungenani kwezinye izingxenye - kunokuthola umthombo owodwa. Ukuvikeleka okukhulu komkhiqizo kungaba inzuzo yokuthola okukabili. Njengakuqala, umbuzo wezindleko zizonke.
Ukufakwa kukagesi namaphethini amasha ochungechunge lokuhlinzeka
Ukufakwa kukagesi kuletha izinselelo ezintsha kumaketanga okunikezwayo okuzayo ezimotweni. Ama-OEM abhekane nokungaqiniseki okukhulu mayelana nokuhlinzekwa kwezingxenye ezintsha nezibalulekile - ikakhulukazi amabhethri e-powertrain - abazama ukukuxazulula. Kukhona futhi imibuzo yamasu mayelana nezinga lokuhlanganiswa okuqondile okufiselekayo ukuze kuncishiswe ubungozi besikhathi esizayo kanye nokulawula izici zezentengiso zezinhlelo zokuhlinzeka. Amabhizinisi ahlanganyelwe nezingcweti zamabhethri asemisiwe. Ezinye izinto ezibalulekile ezimotweni zikagesi - njengezinjini, izingxenye zesistimu yokushayela, iziguquli zamandla kagesi aphezulu - nazo zizoba ngaphansi kokwenyuka kokutshalwa kwezimali okuhambisana nokucatshangelwa kwe-supply chain.
Amasu okuvelela okufaka ugesi azobona isidingo samaseli ebhethri e-lithium-ion sikhuphuka. Abakhiqizi bamabhethri emhlabeni jikelele bazibophezela kumasu okukhulisa amadola ayizigidigidi, bavule 'ama-gigafactory' amasha ukuze banikeze amaseli kubakhi bezimoto.
Isibonelo esisodwa esiphawulekayo sokusebenzisana okujulile kwe-OEM-Tier 1 kule ndawo sihlinzekwa ngokusayinwa kwe-MoU phakathi kwe-Volkswagen ne-Bosch. Lezi zinkampani ezimbili zihlela ukuhlinzeka ngezinhlelo ezididiyelwe zokukhiqiza ibhethri, i-ramp-up esizeni, kanye nokusekelwa kokulungisa amabhethri-cell kanye nabakhiqizi besistimu yebhethri. Abashoyo bahlose ubuholi bezindleko nobuchwepheshe kubuchwepheshe bebhethri obusezingeni lezimboni kanye nokukhiqizwa kwevolumu 'yamabhethri aqhubekayo, asezingeni eliphezulu'.
EYurophu kuphela, iVolkswagen Group ihlela ukwakha amafekthri amaseli ayisithupha ngo-2030 kanti abanye abenzi bathatha izinyathelo ezifanayo ukuze bavikele ukunikezwa kwamaseli namaphakethe ebhethri esikhathini esizayo. Isifunda kufanele sibone umthamo wephakethe webhethri wonyaka cishe amahora angama-700 gigawatt ngo-2030.
Uma ubheka phezulu nomfula, iToyota isungule i-JV enePanasonic (Prime Planet Energy & Solutions - PPES) esayine isivumelwano ne-BHP enkulu yezimayini ukuze kutholakale ikusasa le-nickel sulphate, isisekelo se-nickel ekhona ku-cathode yamaseli amaningi ebhethri ye-lithium-ion. U-Tesla uphinde wasayina isivumelwano esifanayo ne-BHP, esibonisa ukuthi izinto ezingavuthiwe nazo zixubene kakhulu ukuze kuvikeleke ukunikezwa kwesikhathi esizayo.
Lawa madili agqamisa isidingo sabadlali bezimoto ukuthi babheke ngokuqhubekayo uchungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwebhethri, ukuze baqinisekise ukuthi banokufinyelela ezintweni zokusetshenziswa ezanele ukuze banikeze ukukhula komthamo okukhulu okudingekayo ngaphakathi komkhakha webhethri le-lithium-ion ukuze kuqaliswe igagasi elisha lama-EVs ebhethri eminyakeni ezayo. Ukugaywa kabusha nakho kuwukucatshangelwa okubalulekile kumadili amaningi asenziwe.
I-Blockchain yokubonakala kwe-supply chain
Ngokukhulayo, izinkampani zezimoto zisebenzisa ubuchwepheshe be-blockchain ukuze zithole obala ezindabeni ze-supply chain ezifana nokukhishwa kwe-CO2 kanye nomthombo we-cobalt wamabhethri (okungafika nemibuzo yezimiso zokuziphatha ezungeze ukumbiwa kwamaminerali ayigugu).
Umqondo wokuqala we-blockchain, njengoba igama libonisa, uchungechunge lwamabhulokhi anesitembu sesikhathi noma amarekhodi (block = ulwazi lwedijithali; iketango = isizindalwazi somphakathi/somphakathi). Ivimbela ulwazi lwesitolo mayelana nokwenziwe. Lapho ibhulokhi igcina idatha entsha - okwenziwayo - yengezwa ku-blockchain futhi, uma isiqinisekisiwe inethiwekhi yamakhompiyutha yontanga kuya kontanga, noma ubani angayibona (noma ingase ibe ngaphansi kwemvume yenethiwekhi yangasese efana ne-OEM's supply chain - 'incwadi esabalalisiwe').
Nokho, bonke abathintekayo banokufinyelela kuphela kulwazi abanemvume yokulubona. Ikhompyutha ngayinye kunethiwekhi ye-blockchain inekhophi yayo ye-blockchain. Eqinisweni, umqondo uwukudala uhlelo olusobala kakhulu olunezindleko zokuthengiselana eziqandayo phakathi kwezinhlangothi ezimbili ezakha ibhulokhi.
Singalindela ukubona izinkampani zezimoto eziningi zisebenzisa izinqubo ze-blockchain - ikakhulukazi zohlobo lweleja esabalalisiwe (okungukuthi inethiwekhi yangasese) - njengendlela yokunciphisa ingcuphe 'yokunqamuka' kwe-supply chain nokuqonda amandla nobuthakathaka kulo lonke lolu chungechunge, kodwa futhi njengendlela yokubonisa izimfuno ezikhulayo zokulandelwa kwemithetho ezindaweni ezilawulayo njengokusimama.
Izifundo ezivela kwaToyota
UToyota uthathwa njengomunye wabenza kangcono embonini yezimoto uma kuziwa ekuphathweni kwe-supply chain. Kanye nokuba ngumsunguli wezindlela zokukhiqiza ezingenawo amandla kamuva okwaba umkhuba ongcono kakhulu owasetshenziswa ama-OEM amaningi nabaphakeli abakhulu, iphinde yalungisa amasistimu nezinqubo zayo ngokuvumelana nezimo ezishintshayo mayelana nezinyathelo zokunciphisa ubungozi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, isebenze eduze kakhulu nabahlinzeki bayo ngezinye izikhathi futhi ngokwezintshisekelo zomkhakha obanzi uhlose ukubhekana nezimo eziphuthumayo.
Ngemuva kokuzamazama komhlaba kwase-Kyoto kanye ne-tsunami yango-2011, i-Toyota yasebenza kanye nabahlinzeki e-Japan ukukhiqiza isizindalwazi esiphelele solwazi lwe-supply chain ukusekela umkhakha wokukhiqiza wase-Japan. I-Toyota iphinde yethula isu lokuthola okuningi kwezingxenye ezibalulekile okungasho ukuhlela ukunikezwa okuvela emithonjeni emithathu ehlukene - kodwa umphakeli omkhulu ohloselwe ukwenza cishe izingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu ze-oda ukuze kuqinisekiswe izinga lomnotho. Abahlinzeki abaningi benza ezomnotho ezilinganisiwe, kodwa kusho nokuthi ezinye izindlela zikhona uma kunesidingo.
I-Toyota iphinde ibe nohlelo oluthuthuke kahle lokuqapha inethiwekhi enkulu yabahlinzeki bayo kanye nohlelo lokuxwayisa kusenesikhathi mayelana nokushoda. Impela, ezinye izinkampani ziphendukela ku-AI ukuze zihlole intuthuko kumaketanga azo wokuhlinzeka - yize lokho kubikezelwa ngokuba nesizindalwazi esithembekile, esibanzi nesinemininingwane kwasekuqaleni.
Enye inketho yezinkampani ukuqala ukugcina isitoko esiphuthumayo noma se-buffer sezingxenye ezibalulekile - ikakhulukazi lezo ezingabangela ukuthi ulayini wokukhiqiza ume. Futhi, kuhilela izindleko ezengeziwe zokulondoloza noma ukugcinwa kwempahla, kodwa kuwumbuzo wokushaya ucingo ngokuthi yiliphi izinga lezindleko noma 'i-premium yomshwalense' okufanele ikhokhwe. Futhi, ngeke kube yisixazululo saphakade. Kungenzeka ukuthi iToyota iqoqe amanye ama-semiconductors, kodwa ubunzima bokushoda kwama-chips emhlabeni wonke busho ukuthi, ekugcineni, nayo yaphoqeleka ukuthi inciphise ukukhiqizwa. Mhlawumbe ukufunda okubaluleke kakhulu kwaToyota kuyisidingo sokubuyekezwa njalo nokuzivumelanisa nezimo ezishintshayo nokungaqiniseki.
Umthombo ovela Okuzenzakalelayo nje
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