- I-US ifake umthamo omusha we-solar PV ongu-32.4 GW DC ngo-2023, okubonisa ukukhula konyaka ngama-51%.
- Ingxenye yesikali sezinsiza ihole inkokhiso kalula ezimeni zokuhlinzeka, kodwa umthamo wenkontileka wehle ngo-64% ngonyaka.
- Ipayipi lephrojekthi elisuka ku-NEM 2.0 yaseCalifornia lisize ukukhulisa ingxenye yokuhlala yelanga
- Izengezo zika-2024 kulindeleke ukuthi zikhule kancane ngo-5 GW DC ngesamba esingu-38 GW DC
Imakethe yelanga yesibili ngobukhulu emhlabeni, i-US, ikhule ngo-2% minyaka yonke ngo-51 njengoba ukufakwa kwanda kwafinyelela ngaphezu kwama-2023% wonyaka wengezwe amandla okukhiqiza amandla, okungowokuqala ezweni eminyakeni engama-50 edlule.
Ngokusho the I-US Solar Market Insight 2023 Year Iyabuyekezwa umbiko we-Wood Mackenzie kanye ne-Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), izwe liphume ngo-2023 nengeza umthamo omusha we-32.4 GW DC. Ukukhula kubikwe kuwo wonke amasegimenti, ngaphandle kwe-solar yomphakathi. Ngo-2022, yengeze i-20.2 GW DC.
UKUSETSHENZISWA-ISIKALI SOLAR
Ingxenye yesilinganiso sokusetshenziswa kwamandla elanga iholele ukufakwa ngo-22.5 GW DC, okuwukunyuka konyaka okungama-77% ngenxa yokwenyuka kwemojula yokungenisa kwamanye amazwe ngokumiswa kwezintela ezintsha zokunqanda ukuvinjelwa. Nakuba lokhu kulethe ukuzinza kokuhlinzekwa kwezidingo, ukumiswa kuzophela ngo-June 2024. Ukufakwa kwale ngxenye ngonyaka odlule kuhlanganisa amaphrojekthi abambezelekile kusukela ekuqalisweni kwepayipi lika-2022. Ngaphezu kwe-10 GW DC yafakwa ku-Q4 iyodwa.
Kodwa-ke, le ngxenye yehle ngo-64% kumthamo wenkontileka ngo-2023. Ipayipi lephrojekthi yesikali sosizo lwezwe manje limi ku-83 GW DC, lehle lisuka ku-90 GW DC ngo-2022.
Abahlaziyi bayachaza, “Lokhu kwehla ngokuyinhloko kubangelwa ukuguquguquka okuphikisayo kokuthola izinkontileka zamaphrojekthi amasha namaphrojekthi wokwakha asendleleni yamanje. Onjiniyela abaningi bagxile ekwenzeni ipayipi lamanje libe nesitokwe semojula ekhona ngaphambi kokuphela kokumiswa kwentela yeminyaka emibili ngoJuni 2024.”
Phakathi kuka-2024 no-2028, umbiko ubikezela i-148 GW DC yomthamo wesilinganiso esisha sokusebenzisa, kanye nama-343 GW DC kule minyaka eyishumi ezayo. Ukukhula kuzoqhutshwa ukuthengwa kwezinsiza, izinhloso zamandla ahlanzekile ezinkampani, kanye nezinhloso ezigunyaziwe zikahulumeni.
UKUHLALA SOLAR
Unyaka bekuwunyaka wesi-5 olandelanayo wokufakwa kwerekhodi engxenyeni yokuhlala yelanga ehlala e-US njengoba yengeze umthamo ongu-6.8 GW DC, ohlanganisa u-1.53 GW DC ku-Q4.
Ukushintshela eCalifornia ku-NEM 3.0 kudlale indima enkulu njengoba yehle ngo-35% njalo ngekota ku-Q4 njengoba abafaki beqeda ukusilela emuva ngokuthengisa kwabo kusukela ku-NEM 2.0.
Amazinga enzalo aphezulu nawo abe nomthelela omubi ekuthengisweni phakathi nonyaka. Lindela amavolumu aphansi okufakwa kwale ngxenye ezigabeni ezimbalwa ezilandelayo ngenani eliphelele elingu-13% lenkontileka ngo-2024, kusho umbiko. Abahlaziyi balindele ukwehla ngo-40% kumthamo ofakiwe waseCalifornia, okuzoba nemiphumela yawo kuyo yonke ingxenye.
Kufanele ilulame ngo-2025 ngokukhula ngo-13%, njengoba amanani enzalo ehla futhi amaphrojekthi engeziwe ezinkampani zangaphandle afanelekela izengezo Zekhredithi Yentela Yokutshala (ITC). Phakathi kuka-3 no-2024, kubikezelwa ukuthi kuzokwengeza ngaphezu kwe-2034 GW DC ngesilinganiso sonyaka esingama-100%.
COMMERCIAL SOLAR
Ihlanganisa amaphrojekthi elanga asabalalisiwe, le ngxenye ibe nonyaka wamarekhodi ngamanani amasha angu-1.9 GW DC abonisa ukunyuka konyaka ngo-19%. Umthamo ofakiwe we-NEM 2.0 waseCalifornia, kanye nokuncishiswa kwezithiyo ze-supply chain nezindleko eziphansi zesistimu, kunyuse ukufakwa.
Ngale kwezimakethe ezijwayelekile zase-California, New Jersey, New York, Illinois naseMassachusetts, izindleko zentuthuko eziphansi, ukungena kwebhilidi eliphansi kanye nokutholakala komhlaba kwenza izifunda ezifana neGeorgia neTexas zihehe konjiniyela.
Abahlaziyi balindele ukuthi le ngxenye ikhule ngo-19% minyaka yonke ngo-2024, eqhutshwa ikakhulukazi amaphrojekthi e-NEM 2.0 asaza ku-inthanethi. Uma leli payipi loma eCalifornia, kuzoba khona ukucwiliswa ngo-2025.
UMPHAKATHI SOLAR
Ukwengezwa kwamandla onyaka kule ngxenye kwephule umkhawulo we-1 GW DC okwesithathu ngo-3 ngo-2023 GW DC, okuhlanganisa no-1.148 MW DC ku-Q315. Ukwenyuka okungu-4% kwaminyaka yonke bekuholwa yiNew York.
Le ngxenye iyaqhubeka nokubambezeleka okucacayo okudingekile ukuze kwenziwe izinguquko zesizinda, izimvume kanye nokuxhumanisa. Noma kunjalo, abahlaziyi babikezela ukukhula konyaka okungu-15% ngo-2024 kanye nokukhula okumaphakathi okungama-8% ngo-2028 ngamapayipi amakhulu okuthuthukiswa ezimakethe ezintsha nezivuthiwe.
Okuningi, nokho, kuzoncika kumthetho welanga womphakathi waseCalifornia, khomba ababhali bemibiko.
2024 NGAPHEZU KWAKHO
Ibiza u-2023 njengonyaka wokululama embonini yelanga yase-US enamaphrojekthi ambalwa abambezelekile akha ukufakwa kwayo, abahlaziyi balindele ukuthi umfutho uzoqhubeka ngezinga eliphansi lokukhula ngo-2024.
Ngamapayipi anempilo ezinsizakalweni, ezentengiselwano nezingxenye zelanga zomphakathi, abahlaziyi babikezela ukuthi izengezo zelanga zaminyaka yonke ze-2024 e-US zizokhula ngo-5 GW DC ziye cishe ku-38 GW DC. Noma kunjalo, lokhu kukhula kuzoncika ezicini eziningana.
“Icala le-Bull elinozinzo olukhuphukile e-supply chain, ukuxhaswa ngezimali kwentela eyengeziwe, nezinga lenzalo eliphansi lingakhuphula umbono ngo-17%,” bayachaza. "Icala le-Bear elinezingqinamba ze-supply chain, ukuxhaswa ngezimali kwentela encane, nezinga lenzalo elimile linganciphisa umbono ngo-24%.
Ikesi Lebhere liwukwehla okungama-24% ekufakweni okuphelele kwelanga kuze kube ngu-2034 uma kuqhathaniswa nekesi Lesisekelo elihumushela ekuncishisweni kwe-120 GW DC.
"Uma siqhubeka nezifundo zethu nezinqubomgomo zamandla ahlanzekile zikahulumeni, inani eliphelele lokuthunyelwa kwelanga lizophindeka kane eminyakeni eyishumi ezayo," kusho umongameli we-SEIA kanye ne-CEO u-Abigail Ross Hopper. “Umthetho Wokuncishiswa Kokwehla Kwamandla Emali ukhipha amandla elanga futhi unomthelela wezinto ezibonakalayo emnothweni wethu, osiza isizinda sokukhiqiza amamojula elanga aseMelika ukuthi sikhule ngo-89% ngo-2023.”
Umbiko ogcwele ungathengwa kwaWood Mackenzie's iwebhusayithi.
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