Sonke besilokhu sizibuza isikhathi esithile manje: Izintengo zemojula ye-photovoltaic zingehla kangakanani ngaphambi kokuthi ekugcineni kufinyelelwe phansi? Ngokusobala, sisekhona indawo yokwehla okwengeziwe, njengoba wonke amanani ehle futhi kule nyanga.
Ngokwesilinganiso, amanani kuzo zonke izigaba zamamojula alungiswe phansi cishe ngo-10%. Akukaze kwenzeke emlandweni we-photovoltaics amanani ephaneli ehle kakhulu ngesikhathi esifushane kangaka. Inyanga eyodwa noma ezimbili manje, amanani abe ngaphansi kwenani eliphansi langaphambilini lika-2020 futhi nangaphezulu ngaphansi kwezindleko zokukhiqiza zabakhiqizi abaningi. Ukukhiqiza izilinganiso zenzuzo kubonakala kuyinto yesikhathi esidlule okwamanje futhi kwabaningi babo manje sekuyindaba nje yokunciphisa umonakalo noma ngisho nokuphila.
Besingafika kanjani kulokhu, futhi ziyini izimbangela zalo mkhuba wokuzilimaza?
Okokuqala nje, kumele kuqashelwe ukuthi amanani emojula akhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-50% phakathi kuka-Okthoba 2020 no-Okthoba 2022, okungabangelwa yintuthuko yezobuchwepheshe, kodwa ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokushoda kokuhlinzekwa okuhlobene nobhubhane okuhambisana nokwanda kwesidingo ngasikhathi sinye. Ekugcineni, abadlali abaningi emakethe ye-photovoltaic benza imali enhle kakhulu - ngezindleko zabathengi bokugcina. Kuze kube muva nje, izintengo zesistimu ye-photovoltaic zaziphakeme kunalokho ezazikhona isikhathi eside. Manje izinto sezishintshe ngokuphelele, okuholela ekwehleni kwamanani nakanjani. Ijubane nokuqina kwalolu shintsho, nokho, kumangaza ngisho nabahlanganyeli bemakethe abanolwazi.
Ngemuva kwezinkinga zokushoda kweminyaka emibili edlule, abafaki abaningi nabathengisi bezitolo benza izibikezelo ezinhle futhi ba-oda izimpahla ezintsha njengokungathi lalingekho ikusasa. Abakhiqizi, ikakhulukazi abavela e-Asia, basabela futhi bakhulisa amakhono abo. Amandla okukhiqiza emhlabeni wonke ngokuvamile adlula isidingo sangempela esilindelekile ngo-30% kuya ku-50%, ukuze ukuguquguquka kunxeshezelwe ngokushesha. Imigqa yokukhiqiza ibe isiqoqwa phezulu noma phansi njengoba kudingeka. Nokho, muva nje, le mishini isike yaphuma esandleni njengoba abakhiqizi abaningi kuye kwadingeka bashintshe ukukhiqizwa kwamaseli namamojula ngokushesha ukusuka kubuchwepheshe be-p-type PERC baye ku-n-type TOPCon, ngenxa yezinkinga zamalungelo obunikazi ezifundeni ngazinye. Kodwa-ke, njengoba imikhawulo yokuthengisa ingasebenzi emhlabeni wonke, amandla amasha akhelwa i-TOPCon ngaphandle kokuthatha indawo yamakhono amadala futhi ngaphandle kokuwavala njalo.
Amathemba abonakale emahle esikhathini eside ngenxa yezindleko eziphakeme ezihlala njalo zemithombo yamandla evamile. Ngeshwa, osombusazwe baseYurophu babekwazi kakhulu ukufaka esikhundleni semithombo yamafutha endala bafake emisha ngokushesha, ngakho-ke ukuhlupheka kwezindleko zamandla ezikhuphukayo kwehle ngokushesha. Lo bhubhane futhi kubonakala sengathi ekugcineni selunqotshiwe futhi umuntu waseYurophu ojwayelekile angahamba ngaphandle kwemikhawulo futhi. Okungenani ngenxa yokwehla kwamandla emali, abantu abaningi abasanda kufuna ukutshala izimali ezinhlelweni ze-photovoltaic manje sebeba madolonzima. Iqiniso lokuthi izilinganiso zenzalo emalini ebolekiwe ziyaqhubeka nokukhuphuka akwenzi isinqumo sibe lula. Umphumela wazo zonke izici ezibalwe ukuwohloka kwesidingo ukuze imboni ye-photovoltaics ingakaveli ekuweni kwehlobo ngisho naphakathi no-September.
Intshisekelo encipha ngokushesha ekuphehleni ugesi welanga nakanjani isho ukuthi amabhuku oku-oda abafaki nabahleli bephrojekthi asebenzisa amamojula angenalutho futhi a-odwe kusengaphambili nama-inverter awakwazi ukulethwa ngesikhathi. Izimpahla ziya ngokuya zinqwabelana kuma-wholesale nasezindaweni zokugcina izimpahla zabakhiqizi. Manje kuthiwa kukhona i-40 GW kuya ku-100 GW yamamojula angathengiswa ezitolo zaseYurophu, ikakhulukazi endaweni yaseRotterdam. Ukunquma inani eliqondile cishe akunakwenzeka. Kodwa-ke, kwanele ukwazi ukuthi sekukhona cishe ukunikezwa konyaka kwamamojula eYurophu ukuqonda ubukhulu nobubanzi bendaba. Ukugcina lezi zimpahla kubiza indawo enkulu ngakho-ke imali; ukulahlekelwa kuyanda usuku nosuku, kuyilapho amathuba okuthengisa ehla. Ingcindezi iyanda kuze kube yilapho i-avalanche ekugcineni iqala ukushelela futhi abokuqala bazoqala ukunikeza amamojula wabo ngaphansi kwezindleko zokuthenga noma zokukhiqiza. Abaqhudelana nabo bayaphoqeleka ukuthi balandele futhi i-spiral eyehlayo iyanyakaza.
Manje umuntu angase acabange ukuthi amanani entengo ehlayo kuzodingeka anyuse isidingo. Ezimweni eziningi, izinga lentengo lamanje lezinto ezibonakalayo alikakafinyeleli kumakhasimende noma abatshalizimali. Kubahlinzeki abaningi, i-inventory endala, eyathengwa ngamanani aphakeme, isenkulu kakhulu. Igagasi lokwehla kwenani nalo liyaqala, yingakho ukwehla kwentengo kuba kubi kakhulu inyanga nenyanga. Abaningi basanethemba lokuthi bazobaleka ngeso elimnyama. Kodwa ingozi yokunamathela ezimpahleni ezindala iphezulu kakhulu. Labo abanentshisekelo kuma-photovoltaics baphinde baqaphe amanani eduze kakhulu futhi baqhathanise okunikezwayo. Ngakho-ke, amakhasimende amaningi okugcina manje alinde ukuthi amanani entengo ehle futhi ayangabaza ukufaka i-oda.
Ngakho-ke yonke into manje incike ekutheni uhambo likuyisa kuphi. Ingabe amanani kufanele ehle kangakanani ngaphambi kokuba isidingo sikhuphuke futhi kuzuzwe ibhalansi?
Imigqa yokukhiqiza e-China isivele ivaliwe, futhi kuze kufike ku-50 GW kuzokwakhiwa ezweni kulo nyaka - ngaphezu kwe-80 GW kuya ku-90 GW esivele ifakiwe kulo nyaka. Kodwa noma ngabe akukho neyodwa imojula entsha eza e-Europe isuka e-China, sizodinga izinyanga eziningi kuze kuqedwe ukusilela emuva kwemojuli. Amamojula agciniwe nawo ayimikhiqizo ikakhulukazi enamaseli e-PERC, ukusebenza kwawo kuphansi kunalawo amamojula anobuchwepheshe bamuva. Ngiyangabaza ukuthi lezi zilungele ukukhuphuka kwesidingo sasekhaya kakhulu. Le mikhiqizo kungenzeka ukuthi isetshenziswe ezimakethe ezingaphandle kweYurophu, lapho abantu bejabule ngamamojula angabizi elanga. Ngokubona kwami, kuphela lapho i-glut ekhona yamamojula ingancishiswa lapho izinga lentengo elinempilo lizokwazi ukusungulwa emakethe futhi. Ngaleso sikhathi, nokho, ukunyakaziswa kwemakethe cishe kuzobonakala futhi abanye ababambiqhaza bemakethe bazowela eceleni kwendlela.
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