Osomnotho, abahlaziyi bezezimali, osopolitiki kanye nezinye izingcweti basho amathuba okuthi ukwehla komnotho kuyehla njalo. Iqiniso liwukuthi, ukwehla komnotho kunzima kakhulu ukubikezela.
Noma kunjalo, ezinye izinkomba zezomnotho ezibalulekile zinikeza ukuqonda okuqinile kokuthi ukwehla komnotho kungase kube endleleni nokuthi kungase kuthinte kanjani izimboni ezithile. Abanye baze baziqhayise ngamarekhodi ahlaba umxhwele uma kuziwa ekubikezeleni ukwehla komnotho.
Nazi izinkomba ezinhlanu zokuwohloka komnotho okucatshangwa ngabamabhange bezentengiselwano:
1. I-US Treasury Yield Curve
Amandla okuqagela adume kakhulu futhi ahlaba umxhwele, i ijika lesivuno lamabhondi e-US Treasury ihlanganisa izinkulungwane nezinkulungwane zezibikezelo ekuvumelaneni kwemakethe kokusebenza komnotho kwesikhathi esizayo. Ikhiqiza isivuno seminyaka eyahlukene yokuvuthwa.
Ngo 1989, Campbell R. Harvey uthole ukuxhumana okuqinile phakathi kokusabalala kwesivuno sezinyanga ezi-3 uma kuqhathaniswa neminyaka emi-5 kanye Isivuno seminyaka eyi-10 kanye nezinguquko ku-gross national product (GNP). Ijika elijikayo, noma amabhondi esikhathi esifushane athela ngaphezu kwamabhondi esikhathi eside, ngokuvamile andulela ukwehla kwe-GNP futhi akubikezele kahle konke ukwehla komnotho kusukela ngo-1955.
Ukukhathazeka ngokuwohloka komnotho okungenzeka kuholela ekuthengiseni amabhondi esikhathi esifushane ukuze kutholakale ukheshi. Lokhu kubangela isivuno sesikhathi esifushane sibe phezulu kunesivuno sesikhathi eside futhi kuguqula ijika lesivuno.
Umbono oyiphutha ojwayelekile ukuthi ukuguqulwa kwejika phakathi kwesivuno seminyaka emi-2 nengu-10 kuveza okulindelwe yimakethe ngokwehla komnotho. Ucwaningo luka-Harvey lukhomba emvuzweni yezinyanga ezi-3 njengesibopho esiphansi ngoba sibonisa ukukhathazeka kokwehla komnotho esikhathini esiseduze kakhulu.
Ukwengeza, ukuguqulwa kufanele kugcinwe isikhathi eside ngokunengqondo, mhlawumbe kuze kube yikota. Ngakho-ke, i- inversion yakamuva phakathi kwesivuno seminyaka emi-2 nengu-10 ayizange ibonise ukwehla komnotho okuzayo.
2. Izinkomba zokuzikhethela
Izilinganiso zobungozi ze-IBISWorld nezibikezelo zezimboni ezikhethiwe zinikeza imininingwane engcupheni yokuwohloka komnotho. Lapho abathengi behlisa ukusetshenziswa kokuzikhethela, ukuzizwela kwezimboni ezibalulekile kuyehla kwinzuzo.
The Amasaluni Ezinwele Nezinzipho imboni ithola ukwehla kwemali engenayo lapho abathengi behlisa ukusetshenziswa kokuzikhethela. Ukukhula okuhamba kancane kukonke kungakhombisa ukwehla komnotho. Izitolo zikabhiya, Utshwala kanye Newayini futhi ikhombisa ukwehla ekusetshenzisweni kwemali ngokubona, njengoba kwenza Amabha kanye nama-nightclub.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i I-Dollar kanye Nezitolo Ezihlukahlukene imboni ingase ibonise ukwehla komnotho lapho ithrenda ngokuphambene nezimboni ezibonayo. Phakathi neminyaka yokuwohloka komnotho, izitolo zamadola isipiliyoni sokukhula ngenxa yemikhiqizo yabo ebiza kancane.
Ukwengeza, lapho izinkomba zomnotho omkhulu zikhombisa ukukhula ngemuva kokuwohloka komnotho, izimboni ezikhulayo ezikhethayo zingaqinisekisa imbuyiselo ekusetshenzisweni kwemali ngokubona, ukuzethemba kwabathengi kanye nemali engenayo ephezulu.
I-IBISWorld Uhlelo Lwengozi Yesexwayiso Sangaphambi kwesikhathi futhi igqamisa izimboni ezinezigaba ezinobungozi kakhulu kanye nesiqondiso sengozi yesikhathi esizayo. Ukusabalala okuphezulu kwezimboni eziyingozi kukhombisa ukuvumelana komhlaziyi mayelana namandla omnotho wesikhathi esizayo.
3. Izinga lokonga lomuntu siqu
The Isilinganiso Sokulondolozwa Komuntu Siqu, kubikwe i-Federal Reserve, ikhombisa iphesenti lemali engenayo etholakalayo elondolozwe abathengi. Ukulandela leli zinga kuchaza abathengi isifiso sokusebenzisa imali ngokubona, amazinga okwesaba kanye nalokho okulindelwe esikhathini esizayo.
Ukwengeza, ingagqamisa ukusabela kwabathengi ezinguqukweni zezilinganiso zenzalo ngisho nokusebenza kwenqubomgomo yezimali. Abathengi ngokuvamile bazokwenyusa ukonga ngamanani aphezulu, futhi le nkomba iphinde ibambe ukusabela emalini engenayo ephezulu.
Izazi zezomnotho ziphawule ukwanda okuqhubekayo kwamazinga okonga ngo-2020 naphezu kweholo eliphezulu nokusetshenziswa kwemali.
I-Federal Reserve ithole ukuthi imindeni ilondoloze ingxenye ebalulekile yokuhlolwa kokuvuselela kokuqala okwathunyelwa ngasekuqaleni kuka-2020. Izinga libonisa okuningi mayelana nokusabela komndeni emalini engenayo ephezulu kanye nokuqashwa futhi lengeza umongo obalulekile ekuthambekeni okungenzeka kudukisa umnotho omkhulu.
Emabhange, izinga eliphezulu lokonga lomuntu siqu libonisa ukusetshenziswa kwemali okuphansi kwabathengi, kodwa futhi nokutholakala okukhulu kwemali yemalimboleko.
4. Izinkomba zobugebengu
Ukuwohloka komnotho kuvame ukuholela emazingeni aphezulu obugebengu emalimboleko namakhadi esikweletu. abathengi futhi amabhizinisi anemali engenayo enciphayo angase azabalaze ukukhokhela izikweletu ezikhona noma athathe okwengeziwe ngokunganaki ukuze alondoloze izinga lokuphila.
Lokhu kukhombisa ubungozi obukhulu kakhulu bemalimboleko yasebhange, kanti futhi kukhombisa ukuqina kokuwohloka komnotho.
Izinga eliphezulu labantu abaphenduka amahlongandlebe lembula ukuphelelwa ithemba okulethwa ukwehla komnotho futhi lingahlukanisa ukwehla okukodwa kokunye; ukuze uthole ulwazi olwengeziwe, i-Federal Reserve iyashicilela Ubuhlongandlebe Emalimboleko Yabathengi futhi Ubuhlongandlebe Emakhadini Esikweletu.
5. I-S&P 500 yezinyanga ezi-3 Inkomba ye-Volatility Index kanye ne-CBOE yezinyanga ezi-3 zokuVolatility Index
stock ukungazami izinkomba zembula kokubili okulindelwe yimakethe ngengcuphe yesikhathi esizayo kanye namazinga engcuphe yangaphambilini, okwenza kuqhathaniswe phakathi kwalokho obekulindelekile esikhathini esidlule kanye nokuguquguquka kwangempela okubonakalayo.
Ukuntengantenga kwezimakethe zamasheya kubonisa ukuthi izimakethe zilindele ukuthi izinkampani ezihlinzeka ngempahla namasevisi zisebenze kanjani esikhathini esifushane. Khetha amaqembu ezitoko angasebenza njengabameleli abahle bemboni noma ukusebenza kwenkampani.
Isebenzisa ukuhluka kwezintengo zezinti, i-S&P 500 yezinyanga ezi-3 Volatility Indexreports ibone ubungozi ezinyangeni ezintathu ezedlule ze-S&P 500. I-CBOE yezinyanga ezi-3 ze-Volatility Index isebenzisa imisebenzi yezinketho ukuchaza okulindelwe yimakethe engcupheni ezinyangeni ezintathu ezizayo.
Imicabango yokugcina
Ukubikezela ukwehla komnotho kunzima kakhulu, futhi lezi zinkomba ezibalulekile zingakuqondisa ngenkathi uzulazula ezikhathini zemisebenzi yezomnotho eneziyaluyalu.
Lezi zinkomba zisiza ukukhombisa ukufika kokuwohloka komnotho okuzayo, zinikeze ukuqonda ngesimo sokuguquguquka komnotho nokuziphatha kwabantu. Futhi zengeza umongo kwezinye izinkomba futhi zenze umqondo wamathrendi angqubuzanayo.
Ngaphezu kwakho konke, lezi zinkomba zinikeza umuntu ojwayelekile okuthile angakucabanga ezikhathini ezivivinyayo zokungaqiniseki kwezomnotho.
Umthombo ovela Ibisworld
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