Phakathi nokwehla kwesidingo se-EV emhlabeni wonke, abakhiqizi bezimoto babuyisela ukugxila kuma-HEV nasezimotweni ze-ICE.
Ngo-2024, imboni yezimoto ibe ngufakazi wokuwohloka okuqhubekayo kwezimakethe zezimoto zikagesi ezisebenza ngamabhethri (BEV), okushiya izinkampani zibhekene nesidingo esincishisiwe somkhiqizo obalulekile ukuze kuzuzwe izinhloso ze-zero zomhlaba nezezimboni.
Ngenxa yesidingo semakethe, izinkampani ezifana neFord, Renault, Kia, Hyundai, Porsche kanye neStellantis bezilokhu ziphambukisa ukugxila kuma-EV amsulwa ukuze zithuthukise ama-powertrain azo ayingxube njengobuchwepheshe benguquko.
Umkhulumeli wakwaPorsche uyatshela Okuzenzakalelayo nje: “Ukushintshwa kwezimoto zikagesi kuthatha isikhathi eside kunalokho esasikucabanga eminyakeni emihlanu edlule. Phakathi nesigaba soshintsho, kubaluleke kakhulu ukuba nohlu oluguquguqukayo lwe-drivetrains, ngoba izimo zohlaka ziyashintsha futhi izifunda ezihlukene zomhlaba zithuthuka ngesivinini esihlukile."
Lokhu kukhombisa umuzwa wemakethe jikelele, njengoba kube nezimemezelo zakamuva mayelana nokwehliswa kokukhiqizwa kwe-BEV.
Izimakethe ze-BEV zipholile
Ngemuva kokulahlekelwa ngama- $ 4.7bn ebhizinisini labo le-EV ngo-2023, abakwaFord babambezele ukwethulwa kwe-SUV entsha neloli elithwala ugesi endaweni yabo yase-Ontario ngo-Ephreli kulo nyaka, esikhundleni salokho bagxile ekukhiqizeni amaloli asebenza ngegesi lapho ephendula isidingo esikhulu.
Phakathi nesizinda sokulahlekelwa okuphezulu okuhloswe kulo nyaka, uJim Farley, umqondisi ophethe kwaFord, utshele i-CNBC ngoJuni ukuthi ukholelwa ukuthi izimoto ezinkulu ze-EV ezifana namaloli “azisoze zenze imali”, ngenxa yezindleko zokuqala zama- $ 50,000 ngephakethe elikhulu lebhethri. Kunalokho, bebezogxila kuma-EV amancane.
U-OPmobility, umphakeli wezingxenye zezimoto waseFrance naye utshele i-Bloomberg kuleli sonto ukuthi abakhiqizi bezimoto baseMelika, baseFrance naseJalimane bakhiqiza ama-EVs ngamazinga njengamanje angama-40-45% angaphansi kwalokho obekulindelekile, abenzi bezimoto babhekene nokugcwala ngokweqile njengoba isidingo sincipha.
U-Alastair Bedwell, umqondisi wocwaningo nokuhlaziywa kwe-powertrain emhlabeni wonke kwa-GlobalData, Okuzenzakalelayo njeumzali, uyaphawula: “Ezimakethe ezivuthiwe, izindleko eziphezulu zokuthengwa kwama-BEV zivimbela ukuthengiswa kuyilapho ingqalasizinda yokushaja engavuthiwe isalokhu iyisithiyo ezimakethe eziningi.”
Ngesonto eledlule nje, i-CEO yakwaGeneral Motors ibuyele emuva emgomweni wabo wokukhiqiza i-EV ka-2025, iveza ukuntuleka kwamandla okukhiqiza kanti iPorsche nayo ithe kuleli sonto ukuthi inhloso yayo ka-2030 yemikhumbi efakwe ugesi engama-80% manje incike ekuthuthukiseni isidingo sabathengi. I-Stellantis imise ukukhiqizwa kwe-EV isikhathi embonini yayo e-Mirafiori, e-Italy, njengoba ukukhiqizwa kwehle ngo-63% engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2024.
Ngokufanayo, i-CEO yakwaRenault icele ukuthi kube nomugqa wesikhathi oguquguqukayo wenguquko e-EU, osekulungele ukuvala zonke izimoto ezintsha zikadizili nelikaphethiloli ngo-2035.
“Njengoba izimakethe zaseNyakatho Melika nase-Europe sezipholile zama-BEV, abantu sebephendukela kobunye ubuchwepheshe obunikeza ukonga uphethiloli kodwa obungakhokhisi kakhulu amanani aphambili,” kusho u-Bedwell. “Ama-Full hybrids (FHEVs) ayifeza kahle le ndima.” NgoMashi, abaphathi beBiden baphinde banciphisa umgomo wabo wokwamukelwa kwe-US EV kusuka ku-67% ngo-2032 kuya ku-35%.
Abakhiqizi bezimoto babona ukukhuphuka kokuthengiswa kwe-hybrid
URandy Park, oyisikhulu esiphezulu kwaHyundai Motor America, uyatshela Okuzenzakalelayo nje ukuthi ukuthengiswa kwe-HEV ngekota kukhuphuke ngo-42% uma kuqhathaniswa ne-Q2 ngonyaka odlule kuyilapho ukuthengiswa okuphelele kwe-EV kukhuphuke ngo-15% kuphela ezimakethe zase-US. “Ukuthengiswa kwethu kwe-Tucson PHEV kwenyuke ngo-280% ngoFebhuwari, 2024 kanti ama-HEV nama-PHEV asheshe aguquka,” usho kanje.
Izimoto ezihlanganisiwe njengamanje ziphethe isabelo semakethe esikhulu kunazo zonke emkhakheni we-EV womhlaba. Ngokombiko we-GlobalData ka-March 2024 Global Sector Overview and Forecast for EVs, ngo-2023, ama-hybrids athole isabelo esikhulu kunazo zonke esingu-60.1% kuzo zonke izingxenye ze-EV, okulindeleke ukuthi zehle ziye ku-46.1% ngo-2028. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ama-EV ahlanzekile, azuze ingxenye engu-39.8. 2023% ngo-53.7.
Isimo siyefana nase-EU, lapho, ngokombiko wakamuva we-European Automobile Manufacturer's Association (ACEA), okuwukuphela kwesigaba se-powertrain esizokhula ngoJuni 2024 uma siqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule ngama-hybrids, ukubhaliswa kwezimoto kunyuke ngo-26.4%. Eqinisweni, i-France (+34.9%), i-Italy (+27.2%), iSpain (+23%) neJalimane (+16.5%) ibone izinzuzo ezinamadijithi amabili.
Ngokwedatha yokuthengisa okwabiwe nayo Okuzenzakalelayo nje, imodeli ye-Kia edayise kakhulu ngo-2023 nango-2024 kuze kube manje kube yingxube ye-Sportage, ekhiqizwa kakhulu ezitshalweni e-US naseSlovakia. Ukuthengisa kukhuphuke ngo-2024.
Okhulumela abakwaHonda uthi: “Izinhlobo zethu eziyingxubevange ezidumile, okuhlanganisa i-Accord, CR-V, manje eseCivic Hybrid, zinikeza ukonga okuphezulu kukaphethiloli kanye nokungena kalula ezimotweni ezifakwe ugesi. Futhi lokhu kuholele ekufuneni okunamandla kumakhasimende kumamodeli ethu ayingxubevange. “
Njengokubikezela kwe-GlobalData, ukukhula kwemakethe ye-FHEV emhlabeni jikelele kulindeleke ukuthi kukhuphuke unyaka nonyaka, kufinyelele ukukhula okuphezulu kwe-10.5% ngo-2030.
E-China, ngakolunye uhlangothi, imakethe ihlukile ngenxa yokuthi ama-BEV asevele ezuza ukulingana kwamanani. U-Bedwell uyachaza: “E-China, ama-FHEV awaziwa kangako njengoba ukungena ezimakethe zokuxhuma (ama-BEV kanye nama-PHEV ikakhulukazi kodwa nama-Extended Range EVs) kulula ngenxa yezindleko zokuthenga eziphansi kakhulu.”
Ibanga lama-hybrids amasha azofika ezimakethe
Njengoba izimakethe ze-hybrid zishisa, izinhlobonhlobo zamamodeli amasha ziyatholakala.
Ngosuku lwabatshalizimali bakwaKia ngo-Ephreli, inkampani yamemezela izinhlelo zokuqinisa uhlelo lwe-HEV lusuka kumamodeli ayisithupha ngo-2024 luye kumamodeli ayisishiyagalolunye ngo-2028 ukuze kuliwe nokungaqiniseki kwemboni, futhi izinketho ze-HEV powertrain zinikezwa iningi lamamodeli amakhulu omkhiqizo. Inkampani iphinde yabelana ngezinhlelo zokwandisa amandla okukhiqiza avumelana nezimo womabili amamodeli e-HEV kanye nenjini evuthayo yangaphakathi (ICE).
Esifundeni sase-Asia-Pacific, ngenkathi iJapan iyikhaya labaholi bomhlaba wonke ekukhiqizeni ama-hybrids, iChina iqhubekela phambili ngokudayiswa kweBEV ngenxa yokwehla kwentengo yomkhiqizo.
"Ama-OEM amaningi aseShayina ahlela ukwethula ama-HEV engeziwe emakethe ukuze andise ubukhona bawo engxenyeni ye-EV," kusho u-Methin Changtor, umphathi omkhulu wezibikezelo ze-Asia-Pacific powertrain kwa-GlobalData. "Ama-OEM aseJapan asagxile kubuchwepheshe be-HEV njengomkhiqizo wawo obalulekile esifundeni, kanti ama-OEM aseKorea nawo ethula ama-HEV amaningi ukuze anqobe ukwehla kwesidingo se-BEV endaweni."
U-Bedwell uphawula ukuthi isibalo sama-FHEV atholakalayo emakethe sinyukile ngenxa yalokhu kugxilwa kokuxubile eJapane naseKorea, futhi uyanezela: “Ama-OEM amaningana asentshonalanga anezela okwengeziwe kuhlu lwawo – iRenault iyisibonelo esihle.”
Abakhiqizi bezimoto baseJapan manje sebethumela amanye amamodeli ayingxube eningi eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, ikakhulukazi i-Indonesia, lapho bephethe ngaphezu kuka-90% wesabelo semakethe. AbakwaToyota bakhombise ama-Prius hybrids akamuva - ihybrid ne-plug-in - ngesonto eledlule ngaphambi kokuvulwa kombukiso wezimoto iGaikindo Indonesia International Auto, kwathi uNissan yena wamemezela ngomhlaka-17. NgoJulayi izokwethula imodeli yayo yakamuva eyi-hybrid e-Power Serena ezimakethe zase-Indonesia.
KwaToyota, umkhiqizi omisiwe oyingxubevange othole ukugxekwa ngokuntuleka kwamamodeli e-EV kwaze kwaba yilapho kwethulwa i-EV SUV ngasekupheleni kuka-2022, lokhu kukhuphuka kwesidingo se-hybrid njengoba kuphola isidingo se-BEV, kunenzuzo.
Okhulumela abakwaHonda uyalandisa Okuzenzakalelayo nje: “AmaHybrid adlala indima ebalulekile esu lethu lokufaka ugesi njengebhuloho lamakhasimende asuka kumamodeli e-ICE aye kuma-EV aphelele. I-EV Hub yethu entsha e-Ohio izoba nolayini wokukhiqiza oguquguqukayo okwazi ukukhiqiza amamodeli e-ICE, hybrid, kanye ne-BEV, okusivumela ukuthi sizivumelanise nezimfuno zemakethe ngempumelelo.
AbakwaFord baphinde basho phambilini ngo-2024 ukuthi bathuthukisa iminikelo ye-hybrid futhi balindele ukunikela ngama-powertrains ayi-hybrid phakathi kohlu lwezimoto zabo.
Inkampani kanokusho yakwaHyundai Motor, iGenesis, phambilini eyayithe izogxila ekukhiqizeni iBEV kuphela, manje isinezinhloso ezifanayo zokwethula nama-HEV. UPark uthe bebelokhu beqonda ukuthi uhambo loguquko lwe-EV luba 'nezidingo zesikhathi esiseduze nezesikhathi eside', nokuthi abakwaHyundai bazohlinzeka ngohlu oluhlukahlukene.
Ibhuloho eliya kukusasa le-BEV
Njengoba umhlaba ugijimela ekukhuphukeni okuyingozi kwesilinganiso esingu-1.5°C kwamazinga okushisa embulunga yonke phakathi neminyaka embalwa, imithetho kahulumeni evimbela ukukhishwa kwezinto ezikhishwayo iyakhula. E-Europe, isibonelo, uma isilinganiso sokukhishwa kwe-CO2 endaweni yezimoto singaphezu kuka-95 g/km, abakhiqizi bazohlawuliswa.
Ukushintshela ekugxileni ekukhiqizeni i-HEV, okusasebenzisa izinjini ezivuthayo zangaphakathi ezingasebenzi kahle futhi ezidla kakhulu ikhabhoni, kungase kwehlise isivinini sokushintshwa kwe-zero embonini yezimoto.
U-Bedwell uthi: “Uma abantu bengathengi ama-BEV anele bese beshintshela ku-FHEV noma enye i-CO2-izimoto eziphumayo, CO2 okuhlosiwe kokunciphisa ngeke kufinyelelwe. Lokho kuholela emiphumeleni emibili: 1. Sekukonke ukudayiswa kwezimoto kwehla noma 2. Abalawuli behlisela phansi imigomo.”
Kodwa-ke, ama-HEV angaphinda anciphise inani elikhulu lezinto ezikhishwayo, kuye ngobuchwepheshe obuyingxube obusetshenziswayo. Izimoto ezixhumene ne-hybrid zingakhipha i-CO2 encane. Isibonelo, iVolvo XC60 PHEV ikhipha i-CO2 ku-23g/km kuyilapho inguqulo ye-hybrid emnene yemodeli efanayo ikhipha u-175g/km.
“Ukuncipha kokungcoliswa komoya okuvela ku-HEV kuyehluka kakhulu kuncike kubuchwepheshe obusetshenziswayo, kusukela ku-5% kuya cishe ku-80% uma kuqhathaniswa nezimoto zendabuko ze-ICE,” kusho uChangtor. "Ngokuphambene, i-BEV ikhiqiza i-zero emissions, ikubeka njengamandla abalulekile ekuguqukeni kokuluhlaza."
Kodwa-ke, wengeza ngokuthi nakuba ubuchwepheshe be-BEV busabhekene nezithiyo ezifana nokukhathazeka ngebanga, ama-HEV ahlala ewubuchwepheshe boshintsho olubalulekile. Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-US Environmental Protection Agency yenze lula imithetho yokukhipha umoya ukuze ivumele abakhiqizi bezimoto inkululeko eyengeziwe yokuhlangabezana nezindinganiso zokukhipha umoya ngama-hybrids kunama-BEV.
Ingabe le hybrid boom izoqhubeka esikhathini esizayo? Ngokuka-Bedwell: “Ukuthengiswa kwe-FHEV emhlabeni jikelele kuzoqhubeka nokukhuphuka, nakuba kungenjalo kakhulu e-China, kodwa kuzonqunyelwa isidingo sokulawula sokushintshela ku-Zero Emissions Vehicles okusho ukuthi, ekugcineni, ama-BEV.
“Sikubona kuyisigaba sesikhashana kuze kube izindleko zokuthengwa kwezimoto ezixhunywayo ziqala ukwehla ngendlela efanayo nezinkampani ezingaxhunywanga. E-China, izintengo zama-plug-in sezivele zikulelo zinga.”
Abakhiqizi bezimoto abaningi nabo bakubona njengobuchwepheshe benguquko ukuze bagcwalise isidingo semakethe samanje. UPark uthi: “KwaHyundai bazokwethula izinhlobo ezintsha zeBEV ezingaphezu kuka-17 ngo-2030; Ezingu-11 zamamodeli akwaHyundai neziyisithupha zohlobo oluphambili lweGenesis – okubhekiswe ku-7% wemakethe ye-EV yomhlaba ngo-2030.”
Ngokwezibikezelo ze-GlobalData, esifundeni sase-Asia-Pacific, ama-BEV alindeleke ukuthi abuse phezu kwama-HEV kusukela ngo-2024, kuyilapho eYurophu, kuzothatha kuze kube ngu-2029. ENingizimu Melika, naseMpumalanga Ephakathi kanye nesifunda sase-Afrika, nokho, ama-HEV asethwe amele izikhathi eziningana isabelo semakethe sama-BEV ngisho nango-2028.
Umthombo ovela Okuzenzakalelayo nje
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