Eminyakeni yamuva nje, amazwe ase-Baltic ahlangabezane ne-solar generation boom njengoba isifunda sifuna ukubulala izinyoni ezimbili ngetshe elilodwa. Lezi zizwe zihlose ukugqashula ekuthembeleni kwamandla eRussia iminyaka eminingi phakathi kokukhathazeka okukhulayo kwezokuphepha ngenkathi ziqhubeka nokubeka phambili uguquko lwamandla aluhlaza.
Ukuqubuka kwezingxabano e-Ukraine kwakuwucingo lokuvusa amazwe aseBaltic, okubonisa isidingo esiphuthumayo sezinguquko kuzinqubomgomo zamandla.
"Inkinga yamandla elandela ukuhlukunyezwa kweRussian Federation ngokumelene ne-Ukraine ngo-2022 ngokuqinisekile yaba nomthelela kuwo wonke amazwe angomakhelwane," kusho u-Andres Meesak, ohola izixazululo zamandla ahlakaniphile e-Estonian region distribution system operator (DSO) Viru Elektrivõrgud, utshele. pv umagazini.
Izifundazwe zaseBaltic zaseLatvia, Lithuania, nase-Estonia zifunde lukhulu kulokho okwenzeka e-Ukraine ngeshwa njengoba kufanele futhi zihlale ethunzini lomakhelwane wayo osempumalanga onochuku.
"Umthelela omkhulu omuhle kube ukuqonda usongo engqalasizinda yamandla nokusebenzisa ingqalasizinda yamandla namandla njengesikhali esixubile ngokumelene nemiphakathi ngumuntu ohlaselayo," kusho u-Meesak. "Ingxabano yaphoqa amazwe ukuthi asheshise ukuhlukana nokusebenzisana kwamandla [neRussian Federation] yanoma yiluphi uhlobo - ukuqina kwamafrikhwensi, ukuhlinzekwa kukaphethiloli, ukuhamba kukagesi."
Abaphula umjikelezo
Amazwe amaningi aseYurophu ayethembele ngandlela thize eRussia ukuze athole amandla kodwa, emazweni aseBaltic, lolu daba lunombono ohlukile. La mazwe amathathu ahlala eyingxenye yesifunda se-"BRELL" yenkathi yaseSoviet, neRussia neBelarus, ethembele kubaqhubi baseRussia ukuthi balawule ukuvama nokulinganisa ukuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo.
Ngo-2018, i-Latvia, Lithuania, ne-Estonia benza uhlelo lokunqamula i-BRELL futhi bajoyine igridi yamandla e-EU ngasekupheleni kuka-2025. Imicimbi yase-Ukraine yaphoqa amazwe ukuthi acabangele kabusha uhlaka lwesikhathi futhi asheshise uguquko. Ezinye izinyathelo nazo ziyadingeka ukwenza ngcono ukuvikeleka kwegridi yabo yamandla.
"Impi emelene ne-Ukraine ikhombise ngokusobala ubuthakathaka bokunikezwa kwamandla okumaphakathi uma kuqhathaniswa nokukhiqizwa okusatshalaliswa ngamayunithi amancane," kusho uMeesak, ephakamisa ukuthi ibe nomthelela emphakathini kuwo wonke amazinga, kusukela ezindlini kuya ezikhulwini zikahulumeni eziphezulu.
Ngaphezu kwesizathu sezepolitiki, abatshalizimali baseBaltic bathola izikhuthazo eziqinile zomnotho zokutshala amandla elanga njengoba izindleko zamandla esifundeni zidlula ophahleni. Esiqongweni senkinga kagesi yase-Europe yango-2022, abathengi bakagesi babone izikweletu zabo zikhuphuka cishe ngokuphindwe kasikhombisa, uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule.
Ngokumelene nalesi sizinda, iminyaka engu-2022 kuya ku-2024 ibone ukukhula kokukhiqizwa kwamandla elanga esifundeni sase-Baltic kwedlula ngisho nezibikezelo ezinethemba elikhulu.
Ukuthathwa kwe-PV kuqale ngempela e-Estonia. UMihkel Annus, usihlalo we-Estonian Renewable Energy Chamber, uthe umthamo ofakiwe uphindaphindeka kabili ngonyaka. Eminyakeni emihlanu kuphela, ekupheleni kuka-2023, umthamo welanga ofakiwe wawumi ku-812 MW, usuka ku-39.6 MW ngo-2018.
I-Lithuania yeqe umgomo wayo we-2025 wokukhiqiza amandla elanga, we-1.2 GW, ngo-2023, ngokusho kwedatha evela ku-Lithuanian Energy Agency (LEA). Izwe lamukele cishe u-300 MW wamandla amasha kule minyaka embalwa edlule.
E-Latvia, cishe u-300 MW wamandla elanga afakwe kusukela ngoJanuwari 2024, kusho u-Anna Rozīte, inhloko yokuthuthukiswa kwebhizinisi ye-AJ Power Group. Lesi sibalo sicishe siphindeke kathathu kusukela ngoMeyi 2023 kuphela.
Amandla elanga ajabulele ukukhula kokutshalwa kwezimali e-Latvia nakwamanye amazwe ase-Baltic njengoba abadlali bemakethe bakhethe ngokuyinhloko izisombululo ezingasetshenziswa ngokushesha okukhulu.
“Ukufakwa kwamaphaneli elanga cishe amaphrojekthi ashesha kakhulu, ngokombono wokuqalisa, okuhlanganisa isikhathi esifushane uma kuqhathaniswa sesiteji sokuklama kobuchwepheshe nezimvume, kanye nokutholakala kwemishini edingekayo,” kuchaza u-Rozīte.
Ithrendi ephezulu
Abadlali bezimakethe bakholelwa ukuthi ukukhula okutholakele kuze kube manje kungase kube isethulo se-solar boom yangempela yaseBaltic eminyakeni ezayo. Amandla e-PV ezizwe zaseBaltic alinganiselwa ku-40 GW, kusho uRachel Andalaft, umqondisi ophethe we-REA Consult. Wengeze ngokuthi umkhakha wezamandla aluhlaza emazweni aseBaltic kulindeleke ukuthi uhehe ama-euro ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-150 (amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-162) wamathuba okutshala imali eminyakeni engama-20 kuye kwengama-25 ezayo.
Kulindeleke ukuthi ukuthuthukiswa kwemboni yelanga kuzohambisana nokusatshalaliswa nokuhlanganiswa kwezinhlelo zokugcina amandla ebhethri (BESS), ukuthuthukiswa kokuxhumana namanye amazwe ase-Europe, kanye nokuvela okudingekayo kwemakethe yezivumelwano zokuthenga amandla (ama-PPA) ukuze kuzuze indawo yesizukulwane esinqunyelwe, kusho u-Andalaft. Futhi sekuvele kunenani elibalulekile lomthamo epayipini.
Ngokusekelwe kudatha esemthethweni evela ku-Elering AS, u-opharetha wesistimu yokudlulisela kazwelonke (TSO), cishe u-3.5 TWh wokukhiqizwa kwamandla elanga kufanele kwengezwe kungxube yamandla e-Estonian ngo-2026. Abadlali bemakethe yasendaweni babonise ukuthi lokhu kungase kukhave uhhafu wokusetshenziswa kukagesi konyaka wase-Estonia. Noma kunjalo, inqwaba yamaphrojekthi amakhulu kusukela ngo-2022 awakakabi bukhoma kuze kube manje. Ukuthunyelwa kwezitshalo zamandla elanga kungathatha isikhathi eside iminyaka emibili, ukuze amaphrojekthi afinyelela ku-15 MW wamandla, axhumeke ezingeni le-DSO, kanye neminyaka engaphezu kwemithathu ukuze amaphrojekthi angaphezu kwe-15 MW axhumeke ezingeni le-TSO, kusho uGatis Macans, umqondisi omkhulu we-Latvian Solar Energy Association.
"Ngemuva kwe-hype evuselelekayo ngo-2022, lapho kunomncintiswano omkhulu wokubhuka umthamo wegridi, ngo-2023 saqala ukubona izimboni ezisanda kwakhiwa zikagesi welanga ezixhunywe kugridi yokusatshalaliswa kwamandla afinyelela ku-15 MW. Kodwa-ke, amaphrojekthi amakhulu kakhulu e-PV asathuthukiswa futhi sithemba ukuthi sizobona amaphrojekthi ambalwa athunyelwe eminyakeni emibili eseduze,” kusho uMacans.
Izimvume zikhishelwe u-3.6 GW wokuxhunywa kwelanga, kanye nenye eyengeziwe engu-1.6 GW yamaphrojekthi ayingxube ahlanganisa ilanga kanye/noma umoya, nokugcinwa kwamandla. I-opharetha kagesi yombuso wase-Latvia i-Sadales tīkls, yona, ilinganisela ukuthi i-DSO okwamanje igcine u-830 MW ezitshalweni ezingaba khona ugesi welanga. Umgomo osemthethweni kahulumeni waseLithuania ukufinyelela ku-4 GW womthamo welanga ofakiwe ngo-2030.
“[Ngo-2024 nango-2025], kufanele kwakhiwe okungenani amapaki kagesi welanga aphindwe kabili kuya kahlanu [eLithuania] kunalawo akhiwa phakathi naso sonke isikhathi kuze kube yileso sikhathi,” kusho uTomas Janususkia, ongumlingani noWiden, inkampani yabameli eseVilnius.
Isiphithiphithi selanga sibonakala kuwo wonke amazinga omnotho. Abathengi bafake kabili i-solar yokuhlala ephindwe kabili ngo-2022 kuphela njengaso sonke isikhathi ngaphambi kwalokho, uJanususkia uthe, enezela ukuthi amakhaya aseLithuania afanelekile ukuthola usizo lukahulumeni ekufakweni kwelanga kuze kufike ku-10 kW ngosayizi, kuyilapho embonini, isibalo sisethwe ku-500 kW. Imithetho yokululaza yokufakwa kokukhiqiza okuvuselelekayo nakho kube nomthelela.
"Umthetho wamanje wezomthetho wenze lula ukwakhiwa kwezitshalo zamandla elanga," kusho uJanususkia. “Ayidingi imibhalo yokuhlela yendawo, ukuhlolwa komthelela kwezemvelo - ngaphandle kwamacala akhethekile - noma ukuguqulwa kokusetshenziswa komhlaba. Imodeli eyethulwe yesizinda samandla esiyingxubevange, kanye nezitshalo zamandla omoya noma ama-accumulators, yenze kwaba lula futhi yenze ukusetshenziswa kwamanethiwekhi kagesi kanye nemithwalo yamandla kakhudlwana.”
Ukunqoba izithiyo
Naphezu kwenqubekelaphambili, izinselelo zemboni yelanga laseBaltic zisekhona. Izici eziningana zingabeka engcupheni ukukhula komthamo okwengeziwe, ngokuyinhloko ukwesaba ukuthi ukuba namandla elanga amaningi kangaka ekuxubeni kwamandla kungase kube nzima.
“Inselelo [ye-Estonia] manje ukufanela ukukhiqizwa kwezidingo,” kusho uMeesak. I-BESS ingadlala indima ebalulekile, esho, wengeza ngokuthi imboni ingabona ukuthi amapaki anamandla avuselelekayo akhule kanjani ngokubaluleka, njengoba ilanga, umoya, kanye nesitoreji kuyahambisana.
"Nakuba ngo-2024 singalindela ukuba namahora ambalwa lapho ukuphuma kwamandla elanga kudlula inani eliphelele likagesi e-Estonia, kuseyithemba elingenangqondo ukusho ukuthi, ngo-2026, okungenani u-50% wesidingo uzombozwa yi-solar, ngenxa yesici somthamo ophansi [umphumela wangempela ngokumelene nobukhulu obucatshangwayo] kanye nokwanda kwesidingo sikagesi ebusika obubandayo," kusho ubusika obubandayo. Ngenxa yalokho, amanani amabala emini ngesikhathi selanga aphansi futhi ayaguquguquka, wengeza.
Ukusetshenziswa okukhulu kwasebusika e-Estonia cishe ku-1.6 GW. Ababambiqhaza babheke ukungeza isitoreji sebhethri kumasistimu abo noma ukuthuthukisa indawo yamaphaneli ukuze bakhuphule intengo yokuthwebula emakethe. U-Meesak uthe ukuncipha kwezindleko zokugcinwa kwebhethri kukhuthaze imindeni ukuthi ifake amasistimu elanga ayingxubevange anesitoreji sendawo, enikeza ukuzimela okuthile uma kwenzeka kunqanyulwa amandla.
“Ijika lokuhlinzeka ngezidingo zansuku zonke libonisa amandla okukwazi ukugcinwa kwasendaweni amahora amane kuya kwayisithupha - intengo yasemakethe kagesi iphezulu ngezikhathi zakusihlwa, ngemva nje kokuba izimboni ze-PV zicime, kuze kube phakathi kwamabili. Ukuze kutholwe ukuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo, futhi ngalokho nentengo yemakethe, isitoreji samahora amane kuya kwayisithupha siyadingeka ngezindleko ezifanele,” kusho u-Meesak.
U-Andalaft we-REA Consult uthe uvumile ukuthi “izindawo zokugcina zidingeka ngempela ukuze kwandiswe izinga lokungena kwezinto ezivuselelekayo kuyilapho kugcinwa ukuqina kwegridi ngakolunye uhlangothi, futhi kuvumela izindlela ezintsha zokusebenza kolunye.” I-Andalaft iphinde ikholelwe ukuthi kunezinye izingqinamba okudingeka kubhekwane nazo ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukukhula kwemboni yelanga ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.
“Isidingo silandela imigomo,” kusho yena. “Esikhathini sobhubhane, sibone amanani aphakeme kakhulu [ezindleko ezinkulu] kanye nakugesi. Imakethe namuhla isabhekene nemiphumela yalokhu. Uma, ngesikhathi sodlame, ukuthunyelwa kwaba nokubambezeleka kanye nezingqinamba, namuhla ukuntuleka kwemakethe ye-PPA eguquguqukayo kunciphisa isifiso sokutshala izimali futhi kubambezela amandla okuhlukahluka nokuzimele okuqhutshwa ukulingana, indawo yamandla yokuncintisana. "
E-Lithuania, ukuthuthukiswa kwemboni yelanga nakho kubhekane nezithiyo ezithile ezingalindelekile ze-bureaucratic.
U-Janususkia wachaza ukuthi ngaphansi kwemodeli yemiphakathi yamandla eyethulwe ezweni, abathengi, imiphakathi yamandla, kanye nabakhiqizi abakhulu bakagesi kumele baxhume kunethiwekhi yengqalasizinda yamandla alinganiselwe kanyekanye. Ngalesi sizathu, ama-quota anikezwe umthamo wenethiwekhi.
“Lokhu kuholele ochungechungeni lwezingxabano ezingokomthetho mayelana nokushoda kukagesi wegridi kubakhiqizi bamandla, okusebenza njengebhuleki ekutshalweni kwezimali elanga,” kuchaza uJanususkia kaWiden. “Okwamanje, lezi zinkinga sezixazululiwe kancane kodwa umfutho wokutshalwa kwezimali kwehle kakhulu futhi amaphrojekthi akhona emakethe awajahile ukuqaliswa.”
Naphezu kwalezi zinselelo, abadlali bemakethe bathi bahlala beqiniseka ukuthi akukho lutho olungaphazamisa ukukhula kwemboni yelanga esifundeni saseBaltic esikhathini esizayo.
Ibhalwe ngu-Ian Skarytovsky
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