I-Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) iyisivumelwano sohwebo lwamahhala phakathi kwamazwe angamalungu ayi-15 esifundeni sase-Asia-Pacific. Sekukonke, amazwe athatha cishe u-30% wabantu bomhlaba (abantu abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-2.2), kanye namaphesenti angaba ngu-30 e-GDP yomhlaba wonke ($26.2 trillion), okwenza i-RCEP ibe yinhlangano enkulu yokuhweba emlandweni.
I-RCEP ayigcini nje kuphela endaweni yobulungu bayo obuyinhloko, kodwa imiphumela yayo izwakala emhlabeni wonke. Kulesi sihloko, sizobhekisisa lesi sivumelwano esiyingqopha-mlando, sinikeze amazwibela alokho esihlanganisayo nokuthi ziyini izinjongo zaso.
Ukulandela lokho, sizobheka imithelela ye-RCEP, hhayi esifundeni sase-Asia-Pacific kuphela, kodwa naseYurophu. Ukuhlaziywa kwalesi sivumelwano sohwebo kuzosiza abathengisi abanqamula imingcele ukuthi bathole ukuqonda kokuthi yimaphi amathuba amaqhinga azayo.
Okuqukethwe
Uhlolojikelele lwe-Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)
Izinjongo ezinkulu ze-RCEP
Imithelela yezepolitiki nezomnotho ye-RCEP
Uhlolojikelele lwe-Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)
Isivumelwano se-RCEP sasayinwa ngokusemthethweni ngoNovemba 15, 2020, eNgqungqutheleni ye-ASEAN, eyayibanjwe cishe futhi isingathwe yiVietnam. Iqale ukusebenza ngoJanuwari 1, 2022.
Abathintekayo esivumelwaneni se-RCEP
I-RCEP yakhiwe ngabasayini abayi-15 abalandelayo:
- Australia
- Brunei
- Cambodia
- China
- Indonesia
- Japan
- Laos
- Malaysia
- Myanmar
- E-New Zealand
- I-Philippines
- Singapore
- Vietnam
- INingizimu Korea
- Thailand
Isivumelwano sihlanganisa amalungu akhona kakade enhlangano yohwebo ye-ASEAN enamalungu ayi-10 kanye namanye amazwe amahlanu aseMpumalanga-Asia: i-China, Korea, ne-Japan (ngezinye izikhathi okubizwa ngokuthi i-ASEAN +3), kanye ne-Australia ne-New Zealand (ebuye ibizwe nge-ASEAN +5).
I-RCEP inengxube yamazwe anemali engenayo ephezulu, ephakathi, nephansi. Iminotho emihlanu kweyisithupha emikhulu esifundeni sase-Asia-Pacific iyingxenye yalesi Sivumelwano - i-China, Japan, Australia, South Korea, ne-Indonesia. Iminotho emaphakathi ihlanganisa iMalaysia, Singapore, Thailand, New Zealand, Vietnam, kanye nePhilippines. Iminotho emincane eminingana nayo isayinile, okungukuthi iCambodia, iBrunei, iLaos, neMyanmar.
Inani eliqageliwe
Kucatshangwa ukuthi ngokukhula komnotho okuqhubekayo, ikakhulukazi mayelana ne-China ne-Indonesia, isamba se-GDP yobulungu be-RCEP singakhula sibe ngaphezu kwe-US$ 100 trillion ngo-2050. Lokho kuzoba cishe kabili usayizi wephrojekthi wezomnotho we-Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
A 2020 ukuqagela sikhombisa ukuthi ISivumelwano empeleni singakhulisa umnotho womhlaba wonke okungenani ngamabhiliyoni angama-US$186. UPeter Petri noMichael Plummer kusukela ku-Brookings Institution balinganisele ukuthi i-RCEP inamandla okwengeza amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-209 ngonyaka emalini engenayo yomhlaba, kanye namaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-500 ekuhwebeni komhlaba ngo-2030.
The Amaphrojekthi we-Asian Development Bank (ADB). ukuthi i-China, i-Japan, ne-South Korea zizohlomula kakhulu kulesi Sivumelwano, okungenzeka zifinyelele izinzuzo zama-US$ 85 billion, US$ 48 billion, kanye nama-US$ 23 billion, ngokulandelana. Ukuqagela kwe-ADB kukhombisa futhi ukuthi iMalaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, kanye neVietnam kumele zithole izinzuzo ezinkulu ku-RCEP.
Izinjongo ezinkulu ze-RCEP
Ukwenza lula ezohwebo kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali
Njengesivumelwano sohwebo lwamahhala, enye yezinjongo eziyinhloko ze-RCEP ukusungula ubambiswano lwezomnotho lwesimanje ukuze kube lula ukuhwebelana nokutshalwa kwezimali phakathi kwezinhlangothi ezibambe iqhaza. Kukhona ukugxila okukhethekile ekuhwebeni kwezimpahla nezinsizakalo ekukhululweni kwe-Asia yonkana njengendlela yokuthuthukisa isimo sokutshalwa kwezimali esinokuncintisana.
Ngokwezinga elingokoqobo, ISivumelwano sihlela ukunciphisa amanani entengo kanye nemithetho eqinile ukuze kube lula ukuhwebelana nokufinyeleleka ezimakethe. Kufakwe ku-RCEP imithetho ehlangene yemvelaphi yazo zonke izimpahla ezihwetshwa kuyo yonke ibhulogi.
Le mithetho ihloselwe ukusetha izindinganiso ezifanayo ezibeka ukuthi uma amazwe angamalungu e-RCEP ecubungula izinto ezisetshenziswayo noma izimpahla ezisuka kwamanye amazwe angamalungu, lezi zinto ezisetshenziswayo zithathwa njengezisuka ezweni elicutshungulwayo. Ekugcineni, lokhu kuzosebenza ukusungula izimakethe ezivulekile nezincintisanayo.
Hlanganisa izivumelwano ezikhona ze-ASEAN +1 zibe isivumelwano sokuhweba esisodwa
Umshayeli obalulekile owaqhubeza izingxoxo ze-RCEP ngo-2012 kwaba isidingo sokuhlanganisa zonke izivumelwano zohwebo ezikhona ze-ASEAN +1 zibe munye. Okwakuyinkinga mayelana namadili e-ASEAN +1 adlule ukuthi ayenamazinga ahlukene okufisa asekelwe kozakwethu, futhi inani lawo lalingenazo izibopho ezibalulekile zohwebo nokuhwebelana, njengohwebo lwedijithali noma amalungelo empahla yobuhlakani.
Nge-RCEP, amazwe ase-Asia-Pacific azimisele ukuhlanganisa umnotho wawo futhi amise imithetho yezohwebo ehambisanayo ngaphandle kokuba nengcindezi yokudinga ukwenza izibopho ezithile kubalingisi bangaphandle njenge-US. Lokhu kuyiqiniso ikakhulukazi ku-TPP, eyayiqondiswa kakhulu yi-United States ngaphambi kokhetho lukaDonald Trump.
Imithelela yezomnotho ye-RCEP
Imithelela yesifunda sase-Asia-Pacific
Ngokombono wezomnotho, i-RCEP ingabonwa njengewinile kumabhizinisi abamba iqhaza. Ngokusekelwe kuhlaka lwe-ASEAN ye-multilateralist, ikwazile ukugqugquzela ukubambisana kwezohwebo phakathi kweminotho ephezulu yesifunda. Eqinisweni, i-RCEP empeleni imaka isivumelwano sokuqala sokuhwebelana kwamahhala phakathi kwe-China, Japan, ne-South Korea.
Sekukonke, kubonakala njengokunqoba kwesifunda njengoba amazwe aseMpumalanga Asia ekwazi ukusheshisa ukuhlanganiswa kweminotho yawo. Ngokwemibandela ethile, i-RCEP izoba nesibopho sokuxhumanisa abantu abangafika ku-30% emhlabeni wonke kanye nomphumela, futhi ikhiqize izinzuzo zomnotho ekukhuleni kwe-GDP kumalungu ngenani elihlanganisiwe le-US$ 100 trillion ngo-2050.
Mayelana nezimboni ezizohlomula kwi-RCEP, imboni yezimoto imi njengenye yazo. Ukwehliswa kwentela okuvunyelwene ngakho emkhakheni wezimoto kusho ukuthi izinhlobo eziningi ze izingxenye zezimoto eziphakathi kancane kancane izokhishwa intela yokungenisa nokuthumela ngaphandle. Lezi yizindaba ezinhle kubathengisi bezimoto abawela umngcele phakathi kwesifunda.
Imiphumela ye-Europe
Kunethuba lokuma kwamaphethini nemithetho yohwebo ekhona emhlabeni wonke ukuthi iphakanyiswe yi-RCEP, kanye nokubunjwa kabusha kwemithetho nezinhlaka ukuze kwenzeke ngale kwesifunda sase-Asia-Pacific.
I-EU inokuxhumana okukhona kwezohwebo nenani labasayine i-RCEP, ukungenisa nokuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwemikhiqizo yemishini nemikhiqizo yezimoto iphakathi kwezigaba ezi-5 eziphezulu zokuthengiswayo.
Njengoba i-RCEP ihlose ukwenza lula ukuhweba futhi yehlise izindleko zokuhweba phakathi kwamalungu e-RCEP, umphumela kwezinye izimboni ungase wehliswe ukuncintisana kwemikhiqizo yase-Europe, njengoba ukuhweba kuphambukiselwe kwamanye amazwe angamalungu e-RCEP.
Kodwa-ke, ohlelweni olukhulu lwezinto, iYurophu nayo imele ukuzuza ku-RCEP njengoba ukuncishiswa kwezithiyo ezingezona zentela ngendlela yokuvumelanisa izidingo zolwazi lwamabhizinisi kuzovumela futhi indawo yokuhweba ezinzile ezinkampanini zaseYurophu. Kulokhu, U-Petri no-Plummer bahlongozwa ukuthi i-Europe ingathola ukwenyuka kwemali engenayo yonyaka okulinganiselwa ku-US$ 13 billion ngo-2030 ku-RCEP.
Izinkampani zaseYurophu kanye nezimboni ezisungulwe kahle amaketanga okuhlinzeka nge-intra-Asian zizozuza kakhulu, ikakhulukazi imboni yemishini kagesi, eyezimoto neyendwangu. Kukhona ithemba ngaphakathi kwemboni yendwangu, njengoba evezwe yi-European Textile and Apparel Confederation Director, ukuthi imakethe ehlanganisiwe yase-Asia izonyusa isidingo sezinto ezisezingeni eliphezulu nezisezingeni eliphezulu zendwangu ezivela e-EU.
Ekugcineni, umthelela omkhulu ukuthi i-RCEP iphawula ukuhlukaniswa kwezomnotho kwe-East Asia kusukela kumabhizinisi angaphandle kwesifunda. Kodwa nakuba kuzoba khona ukuhlanganiswa kwebhulokhi yokuhweba entsha, efinyelela kude ye-ASEAN+, izinzuzo zokuwina zisengazuzwa namanye amaqembu angaphandle kwalesi sifunda ezimbonini eziningi.
Isiphetho
Ukwethulwa kwe-RCEP kunokubaluleka okukhulu kwezomnotho nezombusazwe hhayi nje esifundeni sase-Asia-Pacific kodwa emhlabeni jikelele. Lesi sihloko sizama ukunikeza isithombe esiphelele sesakhiwo, ububanzi, nemithelela ye-RCEP njengendlela yabathengisi abawela imingcele ukuze baqonde intuthuko yezomnotho elindelekile nokuthi izothinta kanjani ukuhweba phakathi kwezifunda ezihlukahlukene.
Njengoba izinguquko zokuzamazama komhlaba zenzeka emaphethini nemithetho yohwebo yomhlaba, kubalulekile ukuthi amabhizinisi aphesheya aqonde imithelela yentuthuko efana nokwehliswa kwezithiyo ezingakhokhiswa intela kanye nokukhululwa kokuhwebelana ngezimpahla namasevisi kulo lonke elase-Asia okuzobangelwa yi-RCEP.
