Oosonzululwazi basebenzise imifuziselo yomthombo ovulekileyo ukulinganisa iimeko zokukhutshwa kwempompo yobushushu kunyaka ka-2030. Utyalo-mali olongezelelweyo olujikeleze i-54 GW ukuya kwi-57 GW yomthamo we-solar PV kwisisombululo esincinci siyakuvumela ukufakwa kwe-10 yezigidi zeempompo zokufudumala ekupheleni kweminyaka elishumi.
Ukuveliswa kombane ngomthombo
Umfanekiso: Iziko laseJamani loPhando lwezoQoqosho (DIW Berlin), uNxibelelwano loMhlaba nokusiNgqongileyo, CC BY 4.0
Abaphandi abavela kwiziko laseJamani loPhando lwezoQoqosho (DIW Berlin) bahlalutye iimeko ezahlukeneyo zokwandisa iimpompo zobushushu ezinabileyo eJamani ngo-2030. Baye bagxininisa kwindima yokugcina ubushushu be-buffer ekunciphiseni iimfuno zombane kunye nefuthe leendlela ezahlukeneyo zokuvelisa umbane kwiindleko, utyalo-mali lwamandla, kunye nokukhutshwa. Bafumanise ukuba utyalo-mali kwi-PV lunokuhamba ngexabiso elifanelekileyo kunye nokukhutshwa kweempompo zobushushu.
"Kuhlalutyo lwethu, sisebenzisa imodeli yokwandisa amandla omthombo ovulekileyo we-TEASER oqwalasela ukuguquguquka kweyure kokwenziwa kombane ohlaziyekayo kunye nemfuno yobushushu kunyaka wonke," lichaze iqela. "Ikwachaza umthwalo owongezelelweyo wombane onxulumene nezithuthi zombane kunye nokuveliswa kwe-hydrogen eluhlaza. Ngokolwazi lwethu, uhlalutyo olunjalo alukakenziwa ukuza kuthi ga ngoku. ”
Kwimeko yokuqala evavanyiweyo, imeko yesalathiso, iqela licingela i-1.7 yezigidi zeepompo zokushisa ezinikezelweyo ngo-2030, ezibonisa isitokhwe seempompo zobushushu ezifakwe eJamani ngo-2024. Kwakhona kucingelwa i-24.7 TWh yokunikezelwa kobushushu ngonyaka. Ukukhutshwa okucothayo kwemeko kucingelwa ukuba inani leempompo zobushushu liya kufikelela kwi-3 yezigidi ngo-2030, zifakwe ngokukodwa kwizindlu zeentsapho ezimbini kunye neentsapho ezimbini ezakhiwe phakathi kuka-1995 kunye no-2009.
Kwimeko yokukhutshwa kukarhulumente, iqela licinge ukuba liya kufikelela kwiithagethi ezisemthethweni zaseJamani zeempompo zobushushu ezizigidi ezi-6 ngo-2030, ezibandakanya uninzi lwamakhaya osapho olunye kunye namakhaya amabini akhiwe emva ko-1995 kwaye kusetyenziswa i-92.9 2 TWh ngonyaka. Okokugqibela, bacebise imeko ekhawulezayo apho iimpompo zobushushu ezizigidi ezili-10 zifakwe ngo-2030, zibonelela nge-226.3 TWh yobushushu. Kule meko, iimpompo zokufudumala ziya kufakwa kumakhaya amaninzi kunye neentsapho ezimbini, kunye nabadala bakhiwe ngaphambi kowe-1979 ngemigangatho ephantsi kakhulu yokusebenza kwamandla.
"Kuzo zonke iintlobo zezakhiwo, iimpompo zokushisa zomoya-moya zibandakanya i-80% yeepompo zokushisa ezifakiweyo kunye ne-akhawunti ye-heat-source source kwi-20% eseleyo," kuchaza iqela. ”Ubungakanani obucingelwayo bogcino lwamandla bubonakaliswa kumandla-kumandla (E/P) ukusuka kwi-0 ukuya kwi-168 h (0, 2, 6, 24, kunye ne-168 h). Kwesi sigama, indawo yokugcina ubushushu enomlinganiselo we-E/P we-2 h inomthamo opheleleyo wokugcina ubushushu obulingana ne-2 h yowona mveliso uphezulu wobushushu wempompo yobushushu.”
Ngomxube wamandla ekufaniseni, iqela lifake amalahle-kunye nezityalo zamandla ezifakwe kwioli kumanqanaba angoku. Amaziko ombane asebenzisa igesi, umjikelo ovulekileyo (OCGT), kunye nomjikelo odibeneyo (CCGT) unokwandiswa ngaphaya kwamanqanaba angoku. Ngokusekwe kumanani-nkcazo karhulumente, izityalo zomoya elunxwemeni zifakwe kwi-115 GW kunye nonxweme kuma-30 GW. Amandla ePV yelanga ayinayo imida.
"Sifumanisa ukuba ukwandiswa kwesitokisi sempompo yokushisa yaseJamani ukusuka kwi-1.7 ukuya kwi-10 yezigidi kuya kufuna utyalo-mali olongezelelweyo malunga ne-54-57 GW ye-solar PV umthamo kwisisombululo esincinci, kuxhomekeke ekubeni kungakanani ukugcinwa kobushushu," kusho izifundiswa. "Ngesantya esicothayo sokukhutshwa, esafikelelayo kujoliso lukarhulumente waseJamani lweempompo zobushushu ezizigidi ezi-6 ngo-2030, amandla ongeziweyo e-PV amalunga ne-4-8 GW ayafuneka."
Ngokwezifundiswa, xa kuthelekiswa nemeko yesalathiso, ukukhutshwa kukarhulumente kuya kusindisa iJamani i-2.0-€ 6.7 yezigidigidi ngonyaka, kuxhomekeke kumaxabiso egesi yendalo, ekucingelwa ukuba iphakathi kwe-50 kunye ne-150 € / MWh. Kwimeko yokukhutshwa ngokukhawuleza, ukongiwa kungafikelela kwi-27.1 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ngonyaka.
"Ukwazisa ukugcinwa kobushushu kunye nomlinganiselo we-E / P weeyure ze-2 (h) kunciphisa imfuno yokongeza amandla e-PV yelanga, umzekelo, i-6 GW endaweni ye-8 GW eyongezelelweyo kwi-roll karhulumente xa kuthelekiswa nereferensi," izazinzulu zaphetha. Ukongeza, isidingo sokugcinwa kwebhetri sincitshiswe malunga ne-7 GW xa kuthelekiswa netyala ngaphandle kokugcinwa kobushushu kunikezelo lukarhulumente kunye ne-5 GW xa kuthelekiswa nereferensi.
Iziphumo zabo zaziswa "kwicandelo lamandla izibonelelo zeepompo zobushushu eziguquguqukayo kwiimeko ze-2030," epapashwe kwi. Unxibelelwano noMhlaba neNdalo.
Lo mxholo ukhuselwe yi-copyright kwaye awunakuphinda usetyenziswe. Ukuba ufuna ukusebenzisana nathi kwaye ungathanda ukuphinda usebenzise omnye umxholo wethu, nceda uqhagamshelane: editors@pv-magazine.com.
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