- Ukongezwa komthamo omtsha wePV e-US ngo-2022 yayingama-20.2 GW DC, kunye nokuhla ngonyaka kwe-16%.
- Ubukhulu becala ibibangelwe luvavanyo lukarhulumente lokuchasa irhafu kunye nokuthunyelwa kweemodyuli kubambene ne-CBP ngenxa ye-UFLPA.
- Ufakelo lwesikali sezinto ezisetyenziswayo ngonyaka lwehle nge-31%, iSolar yorhwebo yehle nge-6%, iSolar yoluntu i-16%, kodwa indawo yokuhlala inyuke ngama-40%.
- Umthamo welanga ofakiweyo e-US kulindeleke ukuba ukhule kahlanu, ukusuka kwi-141 GW DC ekupheleni kuka-2022 ukuya ngaphezulu kwe-700 GW DC ngo-2033.
- Umthamo wokwenziwa kwemodyuli yelanga eyongezelekayo ukuya kuthi ga ngo-2022-yayiyi-9 GW kuquka ne-1.8 GW efike kwi-Intanethi kulo nyaka uphelileyo.
Urhulumente wase-US amaxabiso achasene nothintelo kunye nokugcinwa kwemodyuli yiCustoms kunye noKhuseleko lweBorder (CBP) phantsi kweUyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) yakhokelela ekubeni ilizwe lifake i-16% ngaphantsi kwamandla elanga e-PV ngo-2022 kunye ne-20.2 GW DC ezayo kwi-intanethi, kodwa US Solar Market Insight 2022 Unyaka wokuphononongwa ilindele 'imbuyekezo eyomeleleyo ekukhuleni' kule ntengiso ngo-2023.
Ufakelo lwesikali esiluncedo lwehle nge-31% ngonyaka ukuya kwi-11.8 GW DC ngo-2022, kuquka ne-4.3 GW DC kwi-Q4/2022. Le yokugqibela ibimele ukukhula okulandelelanayo kwama-67%. Ukuhla ngonyaka kwakubangelwa kakhulu yimingeni yokubonelela kunye nokuphazamiseka kwezorhwebo, ngokutsho kwengxelo yeSolar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) kunye neWood Mackenzie.
Nangona kunjalo, ngaphezulu kwe-4.5 GW DC umthamo wafunyanwa ngexesha le-Q4 ukuthatha Umbhobho weprojekthi eluncedo iyonke ukuya kuma-90.3 GW DC, ukukhula ngonyaka nge-12%.. Kusekho ukungaqiniseki kwexesha elifutshane ngakumbi ngokumalunga nababoneleli bemodyuli benqanaba lesi-2 njengoko ngokwengxelo, i-CBP iphonononga iiodolo ezincinci kunye nabavelisi abancinci, ngelixa iinkampani zenqanaba I ziqinisekile ngokufumana ukuthunyelwa kweemodyuli zazo ku-H1/2023.
Ngomlinganiselo womsebenzi, abahlalutyi baqikelele I-139 GW DC iya kongezwa phakathi kwe-2023 kunye ne-2027, kunye ne-429 GW DC kule minyaka ilishumi izayo phantsi kwemeko yesiseko..
Indawo yokuhlala yePV yelanga ibhalise ukukhula olomeleleyo kweYoY ye-40% kulo nyaka uphelileyo ukunika ingxelo nge-5.9 GW DC izongezo. ngokusondeleyo kwiinkqubo ze-700,000 ezifakiwe, kuquka i-1.68 GW kwi-Q4. Ngo-2023, ababhali bengxelo baqikelela ukukhula kwe-7% ngonyaka kweli candelo kunye nemfuno emandla evela eCalifornia, ngaphambi kokuba i-NEM 3.0 inciphise kakhulu imbuyekezo yemitha yemitha kubathengi abatsha iqale ukusebenza nge-14 ka-Epreli 2023.
Ilanga zorhwebo, eziquka iiprojekthi ezisasazwa kuzo zonke iindawo zorhwebo, kwimizi-mveliso, kwezolimo, ezikolweni, kurhulumente okanye kwimibutho engenzi ngeniso, yehle nge-6% YoY ukuya kwi-1.4 GW DC ngo-2022, kuquka ne-354 MW DC kwi-Q4., kwakhona ngenxa yezithintelo zekhonkco lonikezelo. Ufakelo lunokwenyuka nge-19% yeYoY ngo-2023 njengoko iiprojekthi ezilibazisekileyo ziza kwi-intanethi kunye nokukhawuleza phambi kokuba i-NEM 3.0 ingene kwi-intanethi.
Kongezwe i-284 MW DC kwi-Q4, ufakelo lwePV yelanga yoluntu ngo-2022 yayiyi-1.01 GW DC iyonke. ukuba yehle nge-16% YOY. Ngo-2027, ababhali bengxelo balindele ukuba imakethi ikhule ngomyinge we-11% phakathi kuka-2023 no-2027.
Ngo-2027, i-33% yomthamo omtsha welanga yokuhlala kunye ne-20% yorhwebo olutsha kunye nomthamo welanga woluntu uya kuhlanganiswa nokugcinwa.
Umhlalutyi oyiNqununu eWood Mackenzie kunye noMbhali oyiNtloko wengxelo, uMichelle Davis uthe, “Ngelixa u-2022 ibingunyaka onzima kwishishini lelanga, silindele ukuba eminye imiba yokubonelela ukuba ibe lula, iqhubele phambili ukukhula kuka-2023 ukuya kuma-41%.. "
Itotali efakiweyo yeenqwelo zelanga zase-US kulindeleke ukuba zikhule ngokuphindwe kahlanu kunokuba kunjalo namhlanje, ukusuka kwi-141 GW DC ekupheleni kwe-2022 ukuya ngaphezu kwe-700 GW DC ngo-2033.
I-Forecast kude kube ngu-2027 inikezelwa ngabahlalutyi phantsi kwe-bull case kunye ne-bear case ukuba ibambe iqhaza kuyo nayiphi na impembelelo enxulumene uguqulo lwesixokelelwano sonikezelo, isiqinisekiso setyala lerhafu, ukufumaneka kwabasebenzi, kunye neentsingiselo zexabiso lokuthengisa. Ngaphantsi kwemeko ye-bull case, abahlalutyi balindele i-10% ngaphezulu umthamo ngo-2027, kanti kwimeko yebhere inani elifanayo le-downside libonwa kwangaphambili nge-11% ngaphantsi.
"Beka enye indlela, kuxhomekeke ekubeni zeziphi iingcamango eziba yinyani, kukho malunga ne-20 GW DC yomngcipheko ongaphezulu okanye osecaleni kwishishini lelanga lase-US kule minyaka mihlanu izayo.,” ifundeka ngolu hlobo le ngxelo.
Ngelixa impembelelo yoMthetho wokuNcitshiswa kwexabiso lokunyuka kwamaxabiso (IRA) imiselwe ukuba ibe negalelo kolu qikelelo lwamacandelo ahlukeneyo, isenokuthatha amandla elizwe okuvelisa amandla elanga ukuya kuma-25 GW ekupheleni kuka-2023 ukuba zonke izibhengezo ziyenzeka. Ngo-2022, ngaphezulu kwe-1.8 GW yokwenziwa kwemodyuli entsha yeza kwi-intanethi ithatha i-9 GW., njengoko kubahlalutyi.
Ingxelo epheleleyo inokuthengwa kuWood Mackenzie's website.
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