Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, amazwe e-Baltic afumene i-boom yesizukulwana selanga njengoko ummandla ufuna ukubulala iintaka ezimbini ngelitye elinye. Ezi zizwe zijolise ekuhlukaneni nokuxhomekeka kumandla weminyaka emide eRussia phakathi kweenkxalabo ezikhulayo zokhuseleko ngelixa ziqhubeka nokubeka phambili inguqu yamandla aluhlaza.
Ukuqhambuka kobutshaba e-Ukraine kwakungumnxeba wokuvusa amazwe aseBaltic, ebonisa imfuno engxamisekileyo yotshintsho kwimigaqo-nkqubo yamandla.
"Ingxaki yamandla elandela ubundlongondlongo beRussian Federation ngokuchasene neUkraine ngo-2022 ngokuqinisekileyo yaba nefuthe kuwo onke amazwe angabamelwane," u-Andres Meesak, izisombululo zamandla ahlakaniphile zikhokelela kumqhubi wenkqubo yokuhanjiswa kwengingqi yase-Estonia (DSO) Viru Elektrivõrgud, uxelele. pv imagazini.
Amazwe akwiBaltic eLatvia, eLithuania, nase-Estonia afunde lukhulu kumava alishwa eUkraine njengoko emele aphile phantsi komthunzi wommelwane wayo osempuma.
"Impembelelo efanelekileyo ephambili ibe nokuqonda isongelo kwiziseko zombane kunye nokusebenzisa iziseko zamandla kunye namandla njengesixhobo esixubileyo esichasene noluntu ngumhlaseli," kusho uMeesak. "Ungquzulwano lunyanzelise amazwe ukuba akhawulezise ukwahlukana nentsebenziswano yamandla [neRussian Federation] yalo naluphi na uhlobo-uzinzo lwamaza, ubonelelo lwepetroli, ukuhamba kombane."
Abaphuluki besekethe
Uninzi lwamazwe aseYurophu ebekade exhomekeke kwiRussia ngamandla kodwa, kumazwe aseBaltic, lo mbandela unomgangatho owahlukileyo. La mazwe mathathu ahlala eyinxalenye ye-Soviet-era "BRELL" yesiphaluka, kunye neRashiya ne-Belarus, exhomekeke kubaqhubi baseRashiya ukulawula ubuninzi kunye nokubonelela ngokulinganisela kunye nemfuno.
Kwi-2018, iLatvia, iLithuania, kunye ne-Estonia yenza isicwangciso sokuqhawula kwi-BRELL kunye nokujoyina igridi yamandla e-EU ngasekupheleni kuka-2025. Iziganeko zase-Ukraine zanyanzela amazwe ukuba aphinde ahlolisise ixesha kwaye akhawulezise utshintsho. Amanye amanyathelo nawo ayafuneka ukuphucula ukhuseleko lwegridi yabo yamandla.
"Imfazwe echasene neUkraine ibonise ngokucacileyo ubuthathaka bobonelelo lwamandla oluphakathi xa kuthelekiswa nesizukulwana esasasazwayo kwiiyunithi ezincinci," utshilo uMesak, ecebisa ukuba ibe nefuthe kuluntu kuwo onke amanqanaba, ukusuka kumakhaya ukuya kumagosa aphezulu karhulumente.
Ukongeza kwingqiqo yezopolitiko, abatyali-zimali baseBaltic bafumana inkuthazo eyomeleleyo yezoqoqosho kutyalo-mali kumandla elanga njengoko iindleko zamandla kulo mmandla zidlula eluphahleni. Kwincopho yobunzima bamandla aseYurophu ngo-2022, abathengi bombane babone amatyala abo enyuka phantse ngokuphindwe kasixhenxe, xa kuthelekiswa nonyaka ophelileyo.
Ngokuchasene nale mvelaphi, iminyaka yowama-2022 ukuya kowama-2024 ibone ukukhula kokuveliswa kwamandla elanga kuwo wonke ummandla weBaltic ukubetha nolona qikelelo lunethemba.
Ukuthathwa kwePV kuye kwaqala ngokwenene e-Estonia. U-Mihkel Annus, usihlalo we-Estonian Renewable Energy Chamber, uthe umthamo ofakiweyo uphindwe kabini ngonyaka. Kwiminyaka emihlanu kuphela, ukuya kuthi ga ekupheleni kowama-2023, umthamo welanga ofakiweyo uphelele umi kuma-812 MW, ukusuka kuma-39.6 MW ngowama-2018.
I-Lithuania idlule i-target yayo ye-2025 yokuvelisa amandla elanga, i-1.2 GW, kwi-2023, ngokwedatha evela kwi-Arhente yaMandla yaseLithuania (LEA). Ilizwe lamkele phantse ama-300 MW womthamo omtsha kule minyaka imbalwa idlulileyo.
ELatvia, malunga nama-300 MW womthamo welanga wafakwa ukusukela ngoJanuwari ka-2024, utshilo uAnna Rozīte, intloko yophuhliso lweshishini leAJ Power Group. Eli nani liqikelelwe kathathu ukusukela ngoMeyi ka-2023 kuphela.
Amandla eSolar ayonwabele i-boom yotyalo-mali eLatvia nakwamanye amazwe aseBaltic njengoko abadlali bezentengiso bekhethe izisombululo ezinokuphunyezwa ngokukhawuleza.
“Ufakelo lweepaneli zelanga mhlawumbi zezona projekthi zikhawulezayo, ngokwembono yokuphunyezwa, kubandakanywa ixesha elifutshane ngokwenqanaba loyilo lobugcisa kunye nemvume, kunye nokufumaneka kwezixhobo eziyimfuneko,” ucacise watsho uRozīte.
Ukuya phezulu
Abadlali bezentengiso bakholelwa ukuba ukukhula okufunyenweyo ukuza kuthi ga ngoku kunokuba sisiqalo sesolar yeBaltic yokwenyani kwiminyaka ezayo. Amandla e-PV ezizwe zaseBaltic aqikelelwa kwi-40 GW, utshilo uRachel Andlaft, umlawuli olawulayo we-REA Consult. Wongeze ukuba icandelo lamandla aluhlaza kumazwe aseBaltic kulindeleke ukuba litsale i-150 yeebhiliyoni zeedola (i-162 yeebhiliyoni zeedola) yamathuba otyalo-mali kwiminyaka engama-20 ukuya kwengama-25 ezayo.
Kulindeleke ukuba uphuhliso loshishino lwelanga luya kukhatshwa kukuthunyelwa kunye nokudityaniswa kweenkqubo zokugcina amandla ebhetri (BESS), ukuphuculwa konxibelelwano namanye amazwe aseYurophu, kunye nokuvela okuyimfuneko kwemarike yezivumelwano zokuthenga amandla (i-PPAs) ukuze kuxhamle ummandla womhlaba wesizukulwana, utshilo u-Andalaft. Kwaye sele kukho inani elibalulekileyo lomthamo kwipayipi.
Ngokusekelwe kwidatha esemthethweni evela ku-Elering AS, umqhubi wenkqubo yokuhanjiswa kwelizwe (TSO), phantse i-3.5 TWh yemveliso yamandla elanga kufuneka ifakwe kumxube wamandla wase-Estonian ngo-2026. Abadlali beemarike zendawo babonise ukuba oku kunokubakho ukugubungela isiqingatha sokusetyenziswa kombane wonyaka wase-Estonia. Nangona kunjalo, inani leeprojekthi ezinkulu ukusuka ngo-2022 azikapheli okwangoku. Ukugunyaziswa kwezityalo zamandla elanga kunokuthatha ixesha elide kwiminyaka emibini, kwiiprojekthi ezifikelela kwi-15 MW yomthamo, ukudibanisa kwinqanaba le-DSO, kunye neminyaka engaphezu kwemithathu kwiiprojekthi ezingaphezulu kwe-15 MW ukuxhuma kwinqanaba le-TSO, utshilo uGatis Macans, umlawuli olawulayo weLatvian Solar Energy Association.
"Emva kwe-hype ehlaziyiweyo ngo-2022, xa bekukho ukhuphiswano oluphezulu lokubhukisha umthamo wegridi, ngo-2023 saqala ukubona amaziko ombane elanga asanda kwakhiwa aqhagamshelwe kwigridi yokuhambisa amandla ukuya kuthi ga kwi-15 MW. Nangona kunjalo, iiprojekthi ezinkulu zePV ziphantsi kophuhliso kwaye sinethemba lokubona iiprojekthi ezimbalwa ezigunyazisiweyo kule minyaka mibini ikufutshane,” utshilo uMacans.
Iimvume zikhutshelwe i-3.6 GW yoqhagamshelo lwelanga, kunye ne-1.6 GW eyongezelelweyo yeeprojekthi ezixubileyo ezidibanisa ilanga kunye/okanye umoya, kunye nokugcinwa kwamandla. Umqhubi wamandla wombuso waseLatvia u-Sadales tīkls, naye, uqikelele ukuba i-DSO ngoku igcine i-830 MW kumaziko ombane elanga alindelekileyo. Ujoliso olusemthethweni lukaRhulumente waseLithuania kukufikelela kwi-4 GW yokufakwa kwamandla elanga ngo-2030.
"[Ngo-2024 kunye no-2025], ubuncinane iipaki zamandla elanga ziphindwe kabini ukuya kahlanu kufuneka zakhiwe [eLithuania] kunokuba zakhiwe kulo lonke ixesha kude kube ngoko," watsho uTomas Janususkia, iqabane elisebenzisana noWiden, i-Vilnius-based law firm.
Isiphithiphithi selanga sibonwa kuwo onke amanqanaba ezoqoqosho. Abathengi bafakelwa kabini indawo yokuhlala elanga ngo-2022 kuphela njengoko kulo lonke ixesha ngaphambi koko, uJanususkia uthe, esongeza ukuba amakhaya eLithuania afanelekile ukuba afumane uncedo lwe-solar kwi-solar ye-solar ukuya kwi-10 kW ngobukhulu, ngelixa kumashishini, inani libekwe kwi-500 kW. Uhlengahlengiso lwemigaqo yofakelo lokwenziwa kohlaziyo lube nefuthe.
"Ummiselo okhoyo ngoku wezomthetho wenze lula ukwakhiwa kwezixhobo zamandla elanga," utshilo uJanususkia. “Ayifuni namaxwebhu ocwangciso lwesithuba, uvavanyo lwempembelelo kokusingqongileyo – ngaphandle kwamatyala akhethekileyo – okanye utshintsho kusetyenziso lomhlaba. Imodeli eyaziswayo yomatshini wombane oxutyiweyo, kunye nezityalo zamandla omoya okanye ii-accumulators, ziququzelele kakhulu kwaye zenza ukusetyenziswa kothungelwano lombane kunye nemithwalo esebenzayo ngakumbi.
Ukoyisa imiqobo
Ngaphandle kwenkqubela phambili, imingeni kushishino lwelanga eBaltic isekhona. Izinto ezininzi zinokubeka emngciphekweni ukukhula kwesakhono esongezelelweyo, ikakhulu uloyiko lokuba ukuba namandla elanga angaka kumxube wamandla kunokuba nzima.
“Umceli mngeni [we-Estonia] ngoku kukulungelelanisa imveliso ngokwemfuno,” utshilo uMesak. I-BESS inokudlala indima ephambili, utshilo, esongeza ukuba ishishini linokubona indlela iipaki zamandla avuselelekayo ezahlukeneyo ezikhule ngayo ngokubaluleka, kunye nelanga, umoya kunye nokugcina ukuxhasana.
"Nangona ngo-2024 sinokulindela ukuba neeyure ezininzi apho amandla elanga angaphezulu kwemfuno yombane e-Estonia, kuseyinto elindelekileyo ukuba sithi, ngo-2026, ubuncinci i-50% yemfuno iya kugutyungelwa yilanga, ngenxa yomthamo ophantsi [imveliso eyiyo xa ithelekiswa neyona nto iphezulu yethiyori] kunye nokwanda kwemfuno yombane ebusika. Ngenxa yoko, amaxabiso amabala emini ngexesha lelanga asezantsi kwaye ayaguquka, wongeze watsho.
Ubuninzi bokusetyenziswa ebusika e-Estonia malunga ne-1.6 GW. Abathathi-nxaxheba bajonge ukongeza ukugcinwa kwebhetri kwiinkqubo zabo okanye ukulungelelanisa ukubeka iipaneli ukwandisa ixabiso lokubamba kwiimarike. U-Meesak uthe ukuhla kweendleko zokugcina ibhetri kukhuthaze amakhaya ukuba afakele iisistim zelanga ezixubeneyo kunye nendawo yokugcina indawo, enikezela ngokuzimela kwimeko yokucuthwa kombane.
“Igophe lonikezelo lwemfuno yemihla ngemihla libonisa ukubanakho ukufikeleleka kweyure ezine ukuya kwezintandathu kwindawo yokugcina umbane – ixabiso lemarike lombane liphezulu ngeeyure zangokuhlwa, kanye emva kokuba izityalo zePV zicimile, ukuya kuthi ga ezinzulwini zobusuku. Ukukhupha unikezelo kunye nemfuno, kwaye ngenxa yoko nexabiso lemarike, ukugcinwa kweeyure ezine ukuya kwezintandathu ngeendleko ezifanelekileyo kuyafuneka, ”utshilo uMesak.
U-Andalaft we-REA Consult uthe uvumile ukuba "izixhobo zokugcina ziyimfuneko kakhulu ukwandisa izinga lokungena kwezinto ezihlaziyiweyo ngelixa ugcina uzinzo lwegridi, kwelinye icala, kwaye uvumela iindlela zokusebenza ezintsha kwelinye." I-Andalaft ikwakholelwa ukuba kukho eminye imiba ekufuneka ijongwe ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukukhula koshishino lwelanga ekuhambeni kwexesha.
“Imfuno ilandela imigaqo-nkqubo,” utshilo. “Ngexesha lobhubhane, sibone amaxabiso aphezulu kokubini [kwinkcitho enkulu] nakumbane. Imarike namhlanje isajongene neziphumo zale nto. Ukuba, ngexesha lo bhubhani, ukusasazwa kube nokulibaziseka kunye nezithintelo, namhlanje ukunqongophala kwentengiso yePPA eguquguqukayo kunciphisa umdla wotyalo-mali kwaye kubambe umva amandla ohlukeneyo kunye nolwabucala oluqhutywa ngokulinganayo, kukhuphiswano lwamandla. ”
E-Lithuania, uphuhliso loshishino lwelanga luye lwajongana nemiqobo engalindelekanga ye-bureaucratic.
UJanususkia wachaza ukuba phantsi kwemodeli yoluntu lwamandla oluvezwe kweli lizwe, abathengi, uluntu lwamandla, kunye nabavelisi abakhulu bombane kufuneka badibanise kuthungelwano lweziseko zombane ezilinganiselweyo ngaxeshanye. Ngesi sizathu, iikowuta zabelwe umthamo wothungelwano.
“Oku kubangele uthotho lweengxabano zomthetho malunga nokunqongophala kombane wegridi kubavelisi bamandla, oko kusebenze njengesithintelo kutyalo-mali lwelanga,” ucacise watsho uWiden's Janususkia. “Okwangoku, le miba isonjululwe ngokuyinxenye kodwa ubunzulu botyalo-mali behlile kakhulu kwaye iiprojekthi ezikhoyo kwimarike azingxamanga ukuba ziphunyezwe.”
Ngaphandle kwale mingeni, abadlali bezentengiso bathi bahlala beqinisekile ukuba akukho nto inokuphazamisa ukukhula koshishino lwelanga kwingingqi yeBaltic kwikamva elibonakalayo.
Ngu-Ian Skarytovsky
Lo mxholo ukhuselwe yi-copyright kwaye awunakuphinda usetyenziswe. Ukuba ufuna ukusebenzisana nathi kwaye ungathanda ukuphinda usebenzise omnye umxholo wethu, nceda uqhagamshelane: editors@pv-magazine.com.
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