I-BloombergNEF ithi kwingxelo entsha ukuba ilanga kunye nomoya kufuneka ziqhube ukuncitshiswa kwe-emissions ezininzi ngaphambi kwe-2030 ukuze uhlale endleleni ye-net-zero ngo-2050. Imeko yayo ye-net-zero ijolise kumandla elanga kunye nomoya odibeneyo we-31 TW ngo-2050.
Ingxelo entsha evela kwi-BloombergNEF ithi ukufikelela kwi-net-zero ngo-2050 kuxhomekeke kumthamo ohlaziyekayo ngokuphindwe kathathu phakathi kwangoku ukuya ekupheleni kweshumi leminyaka.
I-Outlook yaMandla entsha yamva nje iveza indlela eya kwi-zero ngo-2050 ebizwa ngokuba yi-“Net-Zero Scenario” (NZS). Ithi ifestile yokufikelela kwithagethi "ivala ngokukhawuleza," kodwa yongeza ukuba kusekho ixesha "ukuba inyathelo eliqinisekileyo liyathathwa ngoku." I-BloombergNEF ilumkisa ukuba ayizukwenzeka ngaphandle kwenkcitho ekhawulezileyo, kunye nenkqubo yamandla yehlabathi ekhutshwe ngokupheleleyo nge-2050 eqikelelwa ukuba ibe nexabiso le-215 yezigidigidi zeedola. Ukufikelela ku-zero ngo-2050, ithi inkqubela phambili kule minyaka ili-10 ilandelayo “ibalulekile.”
"Ixesha le-2024-30 lilawulwa yi-decarbonization yecandelo lamandla ngokukhawuleza, ukuzuza amandla okusebenza kunye nokukhawuleza ngokukhawuleza kokubanjwa kwekhabhoni kunye nokugcinwa kokugcinwa," itsho ingxelo. "Umoya kunye nelanga zizodwa zinoxanduva lokunciphisa isiqingatha sezinto ezikhutshwayo kule minyaka isixhenxe."
Ichaza ukuba izinto ezihlaziyiweyo eziqhuba ukukhutshwa kwezinto ezininzi ezikhutshwayo kweli cala le-2030, kuya kuba nexesha elingakumbi lokujongana nemimandla "enzima-i-abate" efana ne-steelmaking kunye ne-aviation, apho i-cope-competitive low-carbon solutions ingakafiki.
I-NZS ye-BloombergNEF ithi ngelixa ukuthunyelwa kwezinto ezihlaziyiweyo kuya kuqhubeka kwi-2030s, ugxininiso luya kutshintshela ekufakeni umbane, kunye nokusetyenziswa kombane ekupheleni kweshishini, ezothutho kunye nezakhiwo ezibalelwa kwi-35% yokukhutshwa okuthintelweyo ngeli xesha. Emva koko iqikelela ukuba i-2040 iya kuxhomekeka kumxube wobugcisa obuhlukeneyo obujoliswe kumacandelo anzima, apho i-hydrogen iya kuphendula i-11% yokunciphisa ukukhutshwa.
Ingxelo idwelisa iintsika zetekhnoloji ezilithoba kwihlabathi elingena-zero, eliya kusebenza ukulungisa izinto ezahlukeneyo zomngeni we-carbonization. I-BloombergNEF ithi ezine kwiintsika ezilithoba-ukuhlaziywa, ukugcinwa kwamandla, iigridi zamandla kunye nezithuthi zombane-sele "zikhulile, itekhnoloji enokunyuka kwezorhwebo kunye neemodeli zoshishino eziqinisekisiweyo." Ezi zichazwa njengetekhnoloji ezifuna ukukhawuleziswa okubalulekileyo ukufikelela kwi-net zero, kodwa akukho mngcipheko omncinci wetekhnoloji, iipremiyamu zoqoqosho zincinci okanye azikho, kwaye iimodeli zenkxaso-mali sele zisezingeni.
Ukufikelela kwi-net-zero, i-NZS ibeka injongo yomthamo odibeneyo welanga kunye nomoya ofikelela kwi-31 TW nge-2050, eya kufuna umthamo wokuphindaphinda kathathu ukusuka namhlanje ukuya kwi-2030, kwaye iphinda iphindwe kathathu ukusuka kwi-2030 ukuya kwi-2050. I-4 yezigidi zeekhilomitha ubude, phantse kabini ukusuka namhlanje.
I-BloombergNEF ithi i-NZS yayo iya kufuna i-2.9 yezigidi zeekhilomitha zomhlaba kwiiprojekthi zomoya welanga kunye nolwandle ngo-2050, phantse amaxesha angama-15 ngaphezulu kokusetyenziswa kobuchwephesha obubini ngo-2023.
Ilumkisa ukuba imiqobo yomhlaba kwamanye amazwe - oko kukuthi, uMzantsi Korea, iVietnam kunye neJapan - isenokuthetha ukuba umhlaba uwonke olungele ulwakhiwo lwelanga unokujongana nokugcwala, nto leyo ebonisa ukuba isabelo esikhulu sobuxhakaxhaka bomhlaba obuncinci siya kufuneka kwixesha elizayo. Ingxelo ithi esinye isisombululo sisenokuba kukusebenzisa umhlaba kwilanga elinokusetyenziswa kwizityalo.
"Indlela la macandelo akhuphisana ngayo, kwaye ahlala kunye, umhlaba ofanayo uya kubumba imvume yexesha elizayo kunye nemithetho yendawo, ngakumbi ukuba ukukhutshwa kobuchwepheshe bekhabhoni ephantsi kubonakala kusongela ukhuseleko lokutya," ingxelo iqikelela.
I-BloombergNEF ikwatsho nokuba ilizwe lijonge kwi-net-zero okanye ekugqibeleni lingqina ukuba lide kakhulu, "ixesha lolawulo lwezibaso zefosili lifikelela esiphelweni." Ingxelo iqikelela ukuba nokuba utshintsho lwe-net-zero luqhutywa luqoqosho lodwa, kungekho migaqo-nkqubo eyongezelelweyo yokunceda, izinto ezihlaziyiweyo zisenokufikelela kwisabelo se-50% sokuveliswa kombane ekupheleni kweli shumi leminyaka.
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