Kuqatshelwe ukuba intsapho eqhelekileyo ezine ifuna malunga Imiqulu engama-28 yephepha langasese ngenyanga. Ngoko ke, ngokomzekelo, iinyanda ezili-100 zephepha langasese elinamaphepha angama-32 zisenokuhlala intsapho enjalo ngaphezu kweenyanga ezili-114, okanye malunga neminyaka eli-10, ukuze kugqitywe le mfumba inkulu!
Phambi kokuba nabani na azibuze, olu balo luhambelana nexesha elibi lokugcinwa kwamaphepha endlu yangasese okwenzeka emva. nge2020-elona xesha likhulu lokuthengisa iphepha lezindlu zangasese kwimbali yoluntu ukuza kuthi ga ngoku. Eli xesha ligxininiswa kakhulu luqhagamshelwano lwalo kwimisebenzi ye-ecommerce, apho abaninzi babezama ukuthenga okanye ukuthengisa ezi zinto zigcinwe kwi-intanethi.
Inene, le statistic yokusetyenziswa kwephepha lezindlu zangasese ehambelana ngqo apha, ibalaselisa i-Bullwhip Effect-imeko ehlala inoxanduva lokungaboneleli okanye, njengoko kubonisiwe kulo mzekelo, ukugqithiswa kwamanqanaba oluhlu. Qhubeka ufunda ukuze ubambe ngokucokisekileyo i-Bullwhip Effect, oonobangela bayo abaphambili, kunye nezicwangciso-qhinga zokunciphisa, ngakumbi ngokwembono ye-ecommerce.
Isiqulatho
1. Isishwankathelo seNgxaki yeBullwhip
2. Oonobangela abaphambili abakhokelela kwi-Effect ye-Bullwhip
3. Amacebo okunciphisa i-Bullwhip Effect
4. Ukunciphisa isiphithiphithi kumakhonkco obonelelo
Isishwankathelo seNgxaki yeBullwhip
Ukuqonda i-Bullwhip Effect
Igama elithi Bullwhip Effect lali okokuqala yaqulunqwa ngabaphathi beProcter & Gamble's I-Pampers diapers kwi-1990s, kodwa ingcamango engundoqo yayo iye yaqatshelwa ukususela ngo-1961 ngeentetho zikaJay Forrester, unjingalwazi we-MIT kumandla olawulo lokubonelela.
I-Bullwhip Effect isebenza njengobungqina bamandla okuziphatha kwabathengi kunye nokuchaphazeleka kweshishini lonikezelo malunga nokuziphatha okunjalo, apho utshintsho oluncinci kwimfuno kwinqanaba lentengiso lunokubangela ukuguquguquka okukhulu kakhulu kunye nesiphumo sekhonkco kuwo wonke amanqanaba oboneleli kulo lonke unikezelo, kubandakanywa kumthengisi, umenzi, kunye namanqanaba omthengisi.
Ibizwa ngokuba sisiphumo se "bullwhip" ngenxa yokuba isiphumo sokukrazula esinokuthi sibangele utshintsho oluncinci kwindlela yokuziphatha yabathengi kulo lonke ikhonkco lonikezelo lufana nentshukumo ye-bullwhip, apho ukuqhwanyaza okuncinci kwesihlahla kunokukhokelela kumaza amakhulu kwelinye isiphelo.
Ngaphezu koko, ukuguqulwa kwesabhokhwe ngokuqhelekileyo kukhulisa umgama ohamba phambili ukusuka kumthombo wabo, kulo mzekelo, umthengi, ukuvelisa amaza ahlala ekhula abangela ukugcinwa kwempahla, iingxaki zokulawula umgangatho, kunye nokunye ukungasebenzi kakuhle.
Ekubeni yonke into ibangela umphumo we-snowball kulo lonke ukubonelela, impembelelo yale mpembelelo ingaba yinto enzulu kwaye ihlala ixesha elide. Esi siphumo sinokuthi ifuthe kwiimpahla zabathengi enemfuno yokuthengisa ezinzileyo. Ekugqibeleni, okona kunyuka isixokelelwano sobonelelo, uqikelelo olunganeno olungachanekanga luba njengoko ulindelo luthanda ukuphazanyiswa ngokugqithisileyo, kwaye ke ngoko lwandiswe ngokungenamkhethe kwinqanaba lomnikezeli ngamnye ngokuhambelana “nenkqubo yokhuseleko”.
Iimpembelelo kwimisebenzi ye-ecommerce
Impembelelo ye-Bullwhip Effect ngaphakathi kwemisebenzi ye-ecommerce platforms inokunyuswa ngokukodwa ngenxa yokudityaniswa kwezinto. Ezi zinto zenza ukuba amashishini e-ecommerce abe semngciphekweni wokuguquguquka kwemfuno yabathengi, ikakhulu kwimiba emine yokusebenza kwe-ecommerce: ulawulo lwempahla, iimfuno zenkqubo yokuzalisekisa, ukuthengisa kwi-intanethi, kunye nobume bekhonkco lokubonelela.
Okokuqala, ukuthembela kwe-ecommerce kulawulo oluchanekileyo lwe-inventri kunye neenkqubo zokuzaliseka ngokukhawuleza kubenza babe sesichengeni ngakumbi, njengoko naluphi na ulungelelwaniso phakathi kwemfuno yokwenyani kunye namanqanaba oluhlu lunokukhula ngokukhawuleza lube luphazamiseko olubalulekileyo. Iinkqubo ze-inventri eziqhelekileyo zexesha kunye nezithembiso zokuhanjiswa ngokukhawuleza e-ecommerce eqhelekileyo isebenza kuyo, yenza oku kube mandundu njengoko oku kushiya indawo encinci yempazamo ekucingeni imfuno yabathengi.
Ubume borhwebo lwe-ecommerce, oluphawulwa ngesantya esikhawulezayo sokuthengisa kwi-intanethi kunye nokubonakala kwangoko kwamanqanaba e-inventri kubathengi, iphakamisa ngakumbi impembelelo yokuguquguquka kwemfuno. Amakhonkco obonelelo amakhulu kunye awahlukeneyo amaqonga e-ecommerce yongeza kuphela ubunzima, esongeza iileya ezingaphezulu zobuthathaka kwindalo yazo esele ichaphazeleka.
Ukukhululeka kokuodola kwi-intanethi kunokukhokelela ekutshintsheni ngokukhawuleza kwimfuno yabathengi, ukwandisa umphumo kwimisebenzi ye-ecommerce. Umzekelo, ngexesha lencopho efana nokuthengisa okanye izehlo ezingalindelekanga (umzekelo, ukuthenga okungxamisekileyo okubangelwa kukunxunguphala), amashishini e-ecommerce anokufumanisa kunzima kakhulu ukulungelelanisa uluhlu lwawo kunye namanqanaba emfuno aguqukayo ngokukhawuleza.
Ngokubanzi, ngelixa impembelelo ye-Bullwhip Effect kwi-chain supply chain ingaba yinto enzulu, ikhokelela ngokulula kwi-overstocking okanye kwi-stockout kunye neminye imiba ephuma kuyo kuquka ukunyuka kweendleko zokugcina kunye nezixhobo ezichithwayo, impembelelo yayo kumashishini e-ecommerce ingaba yingozi kakhulu ngenxa yendalo yokusebenza kunye nedijithali ye-ecommerce.
Oyena nobangela ukhokelela kwi-Effect ye-Bullwhip
Ikhonkco lokubonelela eliyinkimbinkimbi
Ubunzima bekhonkco lokubonelela kwandisa kakhulu umngcipheko we-Bullwhip Effect, njengoko ikhulisa ukuguquguquka kwemfuno kulo lonke ukubonelela. Okukhona intsonkothe ngakumbi isixokelelwano sobonelelo, kokukhona amathuba okuba avelise uqikelelo lwemfuno engachanekanga kunye nohlengahlengiso olubaxiweyo kwinqanaba ngalinye lonikezelo. Oku kuntsonkotha ngokuqhelekileyo kuvela ekubandakanyekeni kwabameli abaninzi kunye nokunyuka kweendawo zokuchukumisa ukusuka kumenzi womthombo ukuya kumthengi wokugqibela.
Ubunzima bunokudityaniswa ngakumbi ngokongeza amajelo okuthengisa, inani eliphezulu lee-SKU, kunye nokusebenza kwiindawo ezininzi zokugcina iimpahla. Ukungabikho kokubonakala okunjalo kunokukhokelela ekucingeni malunga nemfuno eyenza ngakumbi i-Bullwhip Effect.
Banga iimpazamo zengqikelelo kunye nokuguquguquka kwemfuno yabathengi
Ngelixa eli nqaku ekuqaleni lisenokubonakala lingafanelekanga, xa lichazwa rhoqo njengoyena nobangela wokunqongophala kwempahla engaphezulu kunye nokunqongophala kwempahla, ubugocigoci bolawulo lwesixokelelwano sobonelelo butyhila ubunzima obunzulu. Iquka ububanzi obugcweleyo bokuhlalutya intengiso, ukucwangciswa kweshishini, kunye nokwenziwa kwezigqibo ezicwangcisiweyo, kwaye iqaqambisa ubuthathaka kuyo yonke ikhonkco lokubonelela ngomsebenzi onjalo osisiseko nobalulekileyo. Amashishini amancinci, afana nabathengisi be-ecommerce, abonakaliswe ngokukodwa kumcimbi onjalo ngenxa yokunciphisa izixhobo.
Iimpazamo kwiingqikelelo zemfuno nazo zinokuvela kwiinguqu ezingalindelekanga kwizinto ezikhethwa ngabathengi ezikhokelela ekucingeni okungachanekanga. Ngaphezu koko, ukuthembela ngokugqithisileyo kwiinkcukacha zembali kunokukhokelela kuqikelelo olungachanekanga lweentsingiselo zexesha elizayo. Ezi mpazamo zinokuvela kwimicelimngeni yangaphakathi kunye noxinzelelo lokubonelela ngoluhlu olubanzi lwemveliso, njengoko amashishini ezama ukulungelelanisa ububanzi beminikelo kunye nobunzulu bemfuno yolwazi lwabathengi.
Ukungabikho kokubonakala kwe-inventri kunye nezinye iingxaki zonxibelelwano
Ukungabikho kokubonakala kwempahla kunokuvela kuzo zombini iintsilelo zeteknoloji kunye nemingeni yonxibelelwano, zombini ezo ziqinisa i-Bullwhip Effect. Ngokobuchwephesha, ukungabikho kokungafihli kulawulo lwe-inventri kudla ngokubangelwa kukunqongophala kweenkqubo zolawulo loluhlu oluphambili kunye nezixhobo zokuhlalutya idatha.
Ngaphezu koko, lo mba woluhlu lweempahla nawo uvela kunxibelelwano olulambathayo phakathi kwabathathi-nxaxheba bokubonelela, okubangelwa kukwabelana ngokunganelanga kwedatha ye-inventri echanekileyo. Ngamanye amazwi, ngokusisiseko ngumba wonxibelelwano, apho unxibelelwano olulambathayo kulo lonke ikhonkco lonikezelo lukhokelela ekungaqondani kunye nokungalungelelanisi. Le meko ayintsonkothi nje kuphela ulawulo lwempahla kodwa ikwanyusa i-Bullwhip Effect. Nokuba kungenxa yezithuba zobuchwepheshe okanye imiba yonxibelelwano, isiphumo sokuncipha kokungafihli kwe-inventri sinyusa i-Bullwhip Effect, inika ukwenzeka kwayo kucace ngakumbi kwaye kubonakala kunzima ukuyinqanda.
Amaxesha amade kwaye awandisiweyo okukhokela
Amaxesha amade kwaye awandisiweyo okukhokela, apho umboneleli ethatha ixesha elininzi lokuzisa, kunokuba ngumngeni, njengoko abathengisi banokuzifumana befuna ukugcina isitokhwe sokhuseleko esikhulu ukuthintela ukuphela. Ngokufanayo, iimeko ezibandakanya ukulibaziseka okanye utshintsho kumaxesha okukhokela imveliso kunokuba yingxaki ngokulinganayo, njengoko abathengisi banokuziva benyanzelekile ukuba bagcine isitokhwe esikhulu se-buffer ukuqinisekisa ukuba banokuhlangabezana neemfuno zabathengi.
Ezi meko zenza nzima uqikelelo lwemfuno echanekileyo kunye nolawulo lwempahla. Amaxesha awandisiweyo okukhokela azisa ukungaqiniseki kwisixokelelwano sobonelelo, nto leyo eyenza kube nzima kubathengisi kunye nabavelisi ukulungelelanisa amanqanaba abo esitokhwe kunye nemfuno yokwenene yabathengi. Ngenxa yoko, oku kungangqinelani kunokunyusa umphumo we-bullwhip, kunye nomthathi-nxaxheba ngamnye kwikhonkco lokubonelela ukulungelelanisa amanqanaba oluhlu lwempahla ngokusekelwe kwiimpawu zemfuno ezigwenxa.
Ukuhla kwamaxabiso
Izaphulelo, ukuthengisa, kunye nokukhushulwa zizinto ezikhawulezayo ezibangela ukuhla kwamaxabiso, ukuphazamisa kakhulu intsingiselo yemfuno yabathengi kunye nobunzima bokuqikelelwa koluhlu. Oku kuguquguquka akuchaphazeli nje kuphela ukuthenga kwangoko kodwa kuzisa imiceli mngeni kubaboneleli abazama ukuziqhelanisa nembonakalo yomhlaba eguquguqukayo. Oku kudla ngokukhokelela kumthamo woodolo ophezulu kuwo onke amanqanaba obonelelo ahlukeneyo ngenxa yokunyuka kwemfuno elindelekileyo.
Imeko inokuba nzima ngakumbi xa ukuthengiswa okanye ukukhushulwa kuphelile, okanye xa amaxabiso ehlengahlengiswa ngokusabela kwixabiso lentengo, okukhokelela ekungahambelani ngokuthe ngqo phakathi kokubonelela kunye nemfuno. Olu tshintsho lubi kakhulu lwamaxabiso lufaka inqanaba lokungaqiniseki kwikhonkco lokubonelela, okwenza kube nzima kubaboneleli ukuba baqikelele ngokuchanekileyo amaxabiso exesha elizayo kunye nemfuno yokulinganisa.
Umjikelo wonke wokusabela ekuguquguqukeni kwexabiso ngumzekelo we-Bullwhip Effect, njengoko inqanaba ngalinye lekhonkco lonikezelo lihlengahlengisa imisebenzi yalo ngokusekelwe kwiimpawu zemfuno ezijijekileyo, ngakumbi ukudodobalisa ukulingana kwekhonkco lonikezelo.
Ubuchule bokunciphisa i-Bullwhip Effect
Uqikelelo olomeleziweyo kunye nentsebenziswano yababoneleli
Uqikelelo oluphuculweyo kunye nentsebenziswano esondeleleneyo kunye nababoneleli kunganciphisa kakhulu i-Bullwhip Effect, njengoko oonobangela abaphambili besi siphumo bagxile kunxibelelwano, ukubonakala, kunye nokudityaniswa kobuchwepheshe. Iindlela ezicwangcisiweyo ezijolise ekuphumezeni phambili isoftwe yocwangciso lonikezelo kunye nezixhobo zokuxela kwangaphambili osebenzisa ukufundwa koomatshini kunye nohlalutyo oluphambili lunokuphucula ukuchaneka koqikelelo lwemfuno. Ezi teknoloji ziyakwazi ukusetyenzwa kweedatha ezininzi kunye nokufunda kwiintsingiselo kunye neepateni ukwenza uqikelelo oluchanekileyo malunga nemfuno yexesha elizayo.
Ngelixa izixhobo zokuxela kwangaphambili zibalulekile, zemveli iindlela zokuqikelela zihlala zixabisekile, ngakumbi kwiimeko apho idatha inqabile okanye izinto ezingenakulinganiswa zibalulekile. Nangona izisombululo ezininzi zesoftware ephucukileyo zidibanisa iindlela zobungakanani ngokusebenzisa i-algorithms yokuhlalutya idatha yembali kunye nokuxela kwangaphambili iintsingiselo zexesha elizayo, zinokubandakanya izinto zohlalutyo lomgangatho, njengohlalutyo lweemvakalelo ezivela kwidatha yemidiya yoluntu. Iindlela zoqikelelo olusemgangathweni, njengophando lwemarike kunye nokuqonda kweengcaphephe, zincedisana nezi zixhobo ngokunika isigwebo somntu kunye nokuguquguquka apho i-algorithms isenokungawuthathi umfanekiso opheleleyo.
Ngaphaya koko, ukukhuthaza inkcubeko yonxibelelwano oluvulelekileyo kunye nokwenza izinto elubala nababoneleli-nkonzo kuqinisekisa ukuba onke amaqela ayafikelela kulwazi lwakutshanje. Ukwabelana ngolwazi kunye nokulungelelanisa okulindelweyo kwimfuno kunokunciphisa ngakumbi impembelelo yokuguquguquka kweemfuno zabathengi.
I-inventri ephezulu kunye nokubonakala kwekhonkco lokubonelela
Ukulungisa ukunqongophala kokubonakala koluhlu kunye neminye imiba yonxibelelwano enxulumene noko kubaluleke kakhulu ekwandiseni ukusabela kwikhonkco lonikezelo. Ukuthunyelwa kwethekhnoloji efana neRadio-Frequency Identification (RFID) kunye ne-Intanethi yezinto (IoT) inokubonelela ngedatha ye-inventory yexesha langempela kuwo onke amajelo okuthengisa. Obu bugcisa bukwabonelela ngombono obanzi wamanqanaba e-inventri kulo lonke unikezelo lwesixokelelwano, ukuthomalalisa imiba yokulungelelana kwesitokhwe.
Ngaphaya koko, ukuphunyezwa kwesoftware yolawulo lwe-inventri kunokuzisa ulwazi oluxabisekileyo kwiindlela ze-inventri, ivumela amashishini ukuba aziqhelanise ngokukhawuleza notshintsho lwemarike. Ngokusebenzisa ezi zisombululo, amashishini anokuphucula iindlela zolawulo lwe-inventri, kwaye amkele indlela yobuchule enegalelo kuthungelwano olunamandla nolusebenzayo.
Ulawulo lomyalelo we-Agile
Iinkqubo zolawulo lwe-Agile zinokunceda iinkampani ziphendule ngokuguquguqukayo kwiinguqu zemarike kwaye zinciphise ngempumelelo impembelelo yokubeka ii-odolo ezinkulu, ezingaqhelekanga. Esi sicwangciso sijongana ngokuthe ngqo nokuguquguquka kwexabiso kunye neempazamo zengqikelelo yemfuno ngokukhuthaza inkqubo yoku-odola eguqukayo nephendulayo.
Ukwamkela le ndlela ebhetyebhetye kuvumela amashishini ukuba agxile ekubekeni iiodolo ezincinci, rhoqo ngakumbi kunokuba asoloko exhomekeke kwii-odolo ezininzi okanye ezinkulu. Amashishini anokulungelelanisa ngokukhawuleza kwiinguqu kwimfuno kunye nokunciphisa umngcipheko wokungalingani okukhulu kwempahla. Oku kukwavumela impendulo ezinzileyo ngakumbi ekuguqukeni kwamaxabiso, ukuqinisekisa ukuba amashishini awagqithisi ngokusekwe kwiimeko zemarike zexeshana.
Ukunciphisa ixesha lokukhokela kunye nokuzinza kwexabiso
Ukulungelelanisa imisebenzi kunye nokuphucula ukucwangciswa kwezicwangciso zizitshixo zokunciphisa amaxesha okukhokela, njengoko ezi zenzo zivumela ukuba uluhlu lwempahla kunye nemveliso ihambelane ngokuchanekileyo kunye nemfuno yangempela. Ngokunciphisa amaxesha okukhokela, iinkampani zinokuqinisekisa ukuhamba kakuhle kwempahla kunye nolwazi. Intsebenziswano esondeleleneyo nababoneleli ngeenkonzo ngexesha elifanelekileyo ikwadlala indima ebalulekileyo ekucutheni ulibaziseko lokusebenza, ngokusisiseko uthomalalisa i-Bullwhip Effect ngokulungelelanisa imisebenzi yesixokelelwano sonikezelo neemfuno zokwenene zabathengi.
Kwangaxeshanye, ukuphumeza imigaqo-nkqubo yamaxabiso ezinzileyo okanye ukubandakanyeka kwiikhontrakthi zexesha elide ukuze kugcinwe amaxabiso azinzileyo okanye amaxabiso kulo lonke ixesha lekhontrakthi kunokunciphisa kakhulu ukuhla kokunyuka kwamaxabiso, ngaloo ndlela kuzinzisa iipatheni zemfuno kunye nokutyhafisa ukuodola okusebenzayo. Amaqhinga anjalo athintela utshintsho olukhawulezileyo kwindlela yokuziphatha, kwaye abe negalelo kwimekobume eqikelelwayo ngakumbi, ukuchasana ngokuthe ngqo nokungazinzi okuvezwe kukuguquguquka kwexabiso.
Ukudityaniswa kweteknoloji kunye nokuphucula inkqubo
Ngokwenyani, ukusetyenziswa kunye nokusasazwa kwezixhobo zobuchwepheshe zingundoqo kuzo zonke izisombululo ezicetywayo zokunciphisa i-Bullwhip Effect. Ukudityaniswa kwetekhnoloji kunye nokuphuculwa kwenkqubo yokubonelela kugxininiswa apha njengelitye lembombo, kuqaqambisa indima ebalulekileyo yetekhnoloji ekuqhubeleni phambili ukusebenza kakuhle kunye nokomelela. Izisombululo zetekhnoloji yobonelelo lwanamhlanje, njenge Iinkqubo ze-Vendor-Managed Inventory (VMI)., ukujongana ngqo nemiba yokubonakala kwe-inventri, iingxaki zonxibelelwano ezinxulumeneyo, kunye nezinye izinto ezinzima kwikhonkco lokubonelela, kubandakanywa ixesha elide kunye nexesha elide lokukhokela. Ivumela ulawulo lwe-inventri oluzenzekelayo, ilungelelanise ngokusondeleyo ukuthengiswa kwakhona komnikezeli kunye namazinga okusetyenziswa kwangempela ngabasebenzisi bokugqibela.
Ukunyuka kwe-AI kunye nokufunda koomatshini kuqaqambisa ngakumbi amandla okuba amashishini aphucule yonke inkqubo yolungiselelo, eyona nto iphambili kulawulo lwe-inventri ukukhuthaza ukusabela ngakumbi kunye nokomelela kobonelelo. Ukuzenzekela kweenkqubo zekhonkco lobonelelo kufuneka ke ngoko kube yeyona nto iphambili ekugxilwe kuyo ekudityanisweni kobuchwepheshe, njengoko inciphisa kakhulu ukubakho kweempazamo zabantu kwaye iphucula ulungelelwaniso phakathi kwamaqabane obonelelo. Ekugqibeleni, ukwamkela itekhnoloji ayenzi lula kuphela imisebenzi entsonkothileyo yobonelelo kodwa ikwaqinisekisa indlela esebenzayo yokucwangciswa kwemfuno kunye nolawulo lwempahla.
Ukunciphisa isiphithiphithi kumakhonkco obonelelo
Uhambo oluya ekudambiseni isiphithiphithi esibangelwa yi-Bullwhip Effect kufuneka siqale ngokuntywila nzulu kubume bayo kunye neempembelelo. Ukubonakaliswa kwesiphumo kwi-ecommerce, apho isantya sokutshintsha kunye nokulindela kwabathengi kwandisa imiphumo yayo, kugxininisa imfuno ephuthumayo yezicwangciso zokulawula ezisebenzayo. Embindini womceli mngeni kukho izizathu ezingundoqo ezifana neentyantyambo zobonelelo oluntsonkothileyo, uqikelelo lwemfuno engachanekanga, ukubonakala kwempahla engonelanga, ixesha elongezelelweyo lokukhokela, kunye notshintsho lwamaxabiso olungalindelekanga, ngalinye linegalelo ekuguquguqukeni nasekungasebenzini kakuhle kwemisebenzi yokubonelela.
Ukujongana nale miba kufuna ukudityaniswa kwezisombululo ezicwangcisiweyo, kubandakanywa intsebenziswano esondeleyo nababoneleli, ukusebenzisa itekhnoloji ephucukileyo yoluhlu lwezinto ezingcono kunye nokubonakala kwekhonkco lokubonelela, kunye nokwamkela iindlela zolawulo olubhetyebhetye. Ukwehliswa kwexesha lokuhamba kunye nokuzinziswa kwamaxabiso kunegalelo ekwenzeni lula imingeni yokusebenza. Ngokudityaniswa kwezobuchwepheshe kunye nokulungiswa kwenkqubo, amashishini anokunciphisa kakhulu impembelelo ye-Bullwhip Effect, eqinisekisa ukubonelela ngokuzinzile kunye nokuphendula.
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