Iinqanawa zamazwe ngamazwe ngundoqo kuqoqosho lwehlabathi. Kanye njengemithambo yegazi ithwala izondlo kwiindawo ezahlukeneyo zomzimba, iindlela zokuthumela ngenqanawa zithwala iimpahla phakathi kweendawo ezahlukeneyo zehlabathi.
Nangona kunjalo, kwiminyaka yakutshanje, ukwanda koxinzelelo kwi-geopolitical kubangele ukuphazamiseka kokuthumela ngenqanawa kwihlabathi jikelele. Umzekelo, ukwanda kohlaselo oluxhobileyo kuLwandle oluBomvu kunyanzela iinkampani zeenqanawa ukuba ziphambuke kwiSuez Canal, eyona ndlela iphambili yaselwandle. 12-15% yorhwebo lwehlabathi.
Olo xinzelelo lwemo yelizwe luqaqambisa ubunzulu bobhentsiseko lomngcipheko olujongene namakhonkco onikezelo lwehlabathi. Ke, iinkampani zinokulinciphisa njani ifuthe lemingcipheko ye-geopolitical kwimisebenzi yazo yokuthumela ngenqanawa? Kwaye ngawaphi amacebo abanokuthi bawaphumeze ukugcina ukuhamba okungaphazamisekiyo kwempahla yabo, naphakathi kweengxwabangxwaba zengingqi? Funda ukuze ukhangele iimpendulo zale mibuzo!
Isiqulatho
Iintlobo ze-4 zemingcipheko ye-geopolitical ekuthunjweni kwamazwe ngamazwe
Izicwangciso ezi-5 zokunciphisa imingcipheko ye-geopolitical kwinqanawa yehlabathi
Yamkela imingcipheko yokuthumela ngenqanawa yehlabathi lethu elinesiphithiphithi
Iintlobo ze-4 zemingcipheko ye-geopolitical ekuthunjweni kwamazwe ngamazwe
Ngamagama alula, imingcipheko ye-geopolitical ibhekiselele kwiinguqu zezopolitiko ezinokuthi zibekho kwilizwe okanye ummandla onokuthi uphazamise iimarike zehlabathi kunye nokubonelela. Olu tshintsho lusenokuba zizinto ezinjengeemfazwe, utshintsho olukhawulezileyo kurhulumente, okanye imigaqo-nkqubo emitsha yangaphandle. Makhe sijonge kwiindidi ezahlukeneyo zale mingcipheko enokuchaphazela inqanawa yamazwe ngamazwe:
Imo yezopolitiko kunye notshintsho kumgaqo-nkqubo
Kanye njengemozulu, imo yezopolitiko yelizwe inokuba nelanga ngenye imini ize kolandelayo ibe nesaqhwithi. Xa imeko yezopolitiko kwilizwe okanye ummandla uguquka ngenxa yezinto ezahlukeneyo, ezifana nobunkokeli obutsha okanye utshintsho kumgaqo-nkqubo woluntu, unokuchaphazela ngokuthe ngqo indlela imibutho yehlabathi esebenza ngayo kunye nendlela iimpahla ezithunyelwa ngayo kwimida.
Umzekelo, nge-31 kaJanuwari ka-2020, i-UK yashiya ngokusemthethweni i-European Union (EU), ephawula utshintsho olubalulekileyo kwimo yezopolitiko yaseYurophu. Ngaphambili Brexit, iimpahla zihamba ngokukhululekileyo phakathi kwe-UK kunye nezizwe ze-EU ngaphandle kwesidingo sezibhengezo, iitshekhi, okanye iirhafu. Nangona kunjalo, emva kweBrexit, amashishini kwafuneka alungelelanise neenkqubo ezintsha zamasiko, ajongane nephepha elongezelelweyo, kwaye ahambe ngeendleko ezongeziweyo ezinxulumene neerhafu kunye nokulibaziseka.
Izohlwayo zoqoqosho kunye nezithintelo
Izohlwayo zoqoqosho kunye nezithintelo zizixhobo zomgaqo-nkqubo wamazwe ngamazwe ezisetyenziswa ngamazwe okanye imibutho yamazwe ngamazwe ukufaka uxinzelelo kwelinye ilizwe (ngokuqhelekileyo) ngenxa yezizathu zopolitiko. Xa amazwe enokungavisisani kwezobupolitika okanye ungquzulwano, asenokunciphisa ukufikelela kwimpahla ethile, acothise inkqubo yokuthumela ngenqanawa, okanye athintele ukuhamba korhwebo ngokupheleleyo.
Umzekelo ocacileyo wezohlwayo zezoqoqosho yimiqathango ebekwe kuMntla Korea ngenxa yenkqubo yayo yenyukliya eqhubekayo. Ezi zohlwayo zinciphisa ukufikelela kwe-North Korea kwimithombo yezemali kwaye ithintele ukungenisa kunye nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe iimpahla ezithile eziquka oomatshini, izixhobo zoshishino, kunye neemveliso zodidi. Ngenxa yoko, ukuhanjiswa kweenqanawa ukuya nokubuya kuMntla Korea kuye kwacotha, kwaye iindlela eziphambili zorhwebo ziye zavalwa.
Iimfazwe zorhwebo kunye neerhafu
“Imfazwe yorhwebo” yenzeka xa amazwe ebona ibhalansi yorhwebo engalinganiyo, izenzo ezingafanelekanga zokhuphiswano, okanye ukubiwa kwepropathi enomgangatho ophezulu wokuqonda. Umzekelo, ukuba iLizwe A libeka imirhumo kwizinto ezisuka kwiLizwe B, ngoko ke iLizwe B linokuziphindezela ngokubeka imirhumo kwizinto ezivela kwiLizwe A. Oku kunokukhokelela kutshintsho kumthamo wokuthumela ngenqanawa, iindlela, kunye neendleko, eziphembelela iipatheni zorhwebo zehlabathi.
Umzekelo obalaseleyo ngo-2018, xa urhulumente wase-US, ekuzameni ukunciphisa ukusilela kwezorhwebo neChina, amaxabiso anyusiweyo kuluhlu olubanzi lwempahla yaseTshayina. I-China, ngokuziphindezela, yabeka iirhafu ezongezelelweyo kwiimpahla zase-US, ezibangele umjikelo wokunyuka kwerhafu kurhwebo phakathi kwamazwe amabini.
Ukumiselwa komrhumo okuhambelanayo kuchaphazele i Kuqikelelwa 2% umthamo worhwebo lwaselwandle lwehlabathi. Oku kukhokelele kwiinguqu kwiindlela zokuthumela ngenqanawa njengoko imibutho yokuthumela ngenqanawa yanyanzeleka ukuba ihlengahlengise izicwangciso zayo ekuphenduleni ukuguquguquka kokuhamba korhwebo.
Imfazwe nongquzulwano ngezixhobo
Amazwe alwayo anokuphazamisa iindlela ezibalulekileyo zeenqanawa, nto leyo eyenza ukuba iindawo ezithile zingafikeleleki. Umzekelo, amabango emimandla engquzulanayo malunga neendlela ezinengeniso yeenqanawa kunye neendawo zokuloba zinokukhula zibe ziingxabano zomkhosi. Ngaphezu koko, iindawo ezithwaxwa yimfazwe ziqhelekile kuhlaselo lwabanqolobi kunye nobuqhetseba obunokujolisa kwiziseko ezingundoqo ezibalulekileyo, njengamazibuko kunye nemijelo.
Umzekelo, phakathi kweengxwabangxwaba ezikuMbindi Mpuma, iqela labavukeli baseHouthi eYemen laziwa ngokujolisa kwiinqanawa ezihamba ngeBab el-Mandeb Strait, eyona ndawo ibalulekileyo yaselwandle edibanisa uLwandle oluBomvu neGulf of Aden. Olu hlaselo lwasongela iinqwelo zeoli ezazinqumla kuLwandle Olubomvu, zihamba malunga nama-10% yonikezelo lwe-oyile ehlabathini lusemngciphekweni.
Izicwangciso ezi-5 zokunciphisa imingcipheko ye-geopolitical kwinqanawa yehlabathi
Njengoko sibona, imingcipheko ye-geopolitical inokuphazamisa kakhulu iindlela zokuthutha zamazwe ngamazwe, ezibangela ukulibaziseka okanye ukurhoxiswa kokuthunyelwa kunye nelahleko enkulu yemali. Ke ngoko, amashishini kufuneka aphumeze izicwangciso ezisebenzayo zolawulo lomngcipheko ukuze aqikelele kwangaphambili kwaye alawule ngokufanelekileyo imingcipheko ye-geopolitical. Nanga amanyathelo ama-5 anokuthi athathwe ngamashishini ukuthomalalisa ukuphazamiseka ngokwelizwe:
Ukuhlawulwa kweinshurensi
Ukhuseleko lwe-inshorensi sesinye sezicwangciso ezithe ngqo nezisebenzayo zokulawula umngcipheko ukunciphisa iimpembelelo ezinokuthi zibe kho kwipolitiki kwiinqanawa. Ivumela amashishini ukuba adlulisele inxalenye ebalulekileyo yelahleko yemali enokubakho kwi-inshurensi.
Umzekelo, xa kuthuthwa iimpahla kunye nemithwalo ngamanzi, amashishini anokusebenzisa i-inshurensi yaselwandle ukukhusela ilahleko, ukubiwa, okanye umonakalo obandakanya iinqanawa, imithwalo, izikhululo, kunye nayo nayiphi na indlela yokuthutha esetyenziselwa ukuhambisa iimpahla ukusuka kwindawo yokuqala ukuya kwindawo yokugqibela.
Amashishini anokwandisa imithwalo yawo nge “UMgaqo-nkqubo oVulekileyo woMngcipheko weMfazwe” ukuquka imingcipheko enje ngokubamba, ukuthinjwa, ukutshatyalaliswa, okanye ukonakaliswa ngamadoda asemfazweni, ubuqhetseba, kunye neminye imisebenzi efana nemfazwe.
Ukongeza, amashishini anokusebenzisa le migaqo-nkqubo ye-inshorensi ukuvavanya umngcipheko omkhulu obekwe ziindlela zabo zokuthumela ngenqanawa, njengoko iintlawulo zeinshorensi zithande ukuba phezulu kwiindlela ezidlula kwiindawo ezinengxaki yokungazinzi kwezopolitiko okanye uxinzelelo.
Ukuthunyelwa ngexesha ngenqanawa
Enye indlela yokulawula imingcipheko yokuthumela ngenqanawa kukwamkela i-Just-In-Time (HIT) indlela. I-JIT sisicwangciso solawulo lonikezelo olungqamanisa imveliso kunye nemfuno ngendlela echanekileyo, ejonge ukuhambisa iimveliso kanye xa zifuneka. Le ndlela inokwandiswa ekuthuthweni ngenqanawa ngokulungelelanisa ukufika kwempahla ukuze ihambelane neemfuno ezithile ze Umthunywa, endaweni yokuhambisa iimpahla ezinkulu kwangaphambili.
Ngokugcina inani lezinto kuthutho ngalunye ubuncinci kunye nokucwangcisa ukuhanjiswa kwempahla ukuze ihambelane nesidingo esichanekileyo sokusebenza, amashishini anokomeleza ukomelela kwawo ekuthumeleni ngokuchasene nokuphazamiseka okunokwenzeka kwezopolitiko. Nangona kunjalo, njengoko iinkampani zisenza okuncinci, ukuhanjiswa rhoqo ngakumbi kunokuba kukhulu, ukuhanjiswa okukhulu, oku kunokukhokelela kwiindleko eziphezulu zokuthumela ngenqanawa.
Ukwahluka kweendlela zokuthumela ngenqanawa
Kwiimeko apho kukho ulindelo oluphezulu lokungaqiniseki ngokwelizwe, iindlela ezahlukeneyo zokuthumela ngenqanawa zinokusebenza njengenyathelo elisebenzayo lokunciphisa ukuphazamiseka okunokwenzeka kokuthumela ngenqanawa. Umzekelo, ukuba indlela yaselwandle iye yaphazamiseka ngenxa yeengxabano zelizwe, ukufumana ezinye iindlela zolwandle kunokuba luncedo ukudlula iindawo zezopolitiko.
Umzekelo owenziwe ngomzekeliso wenzeka ngo-2021 xa indlela yeSuez Canal yafumana ingxinano enkulu. UHapag-Lloyd, inkampani yeenqanawa, yasabela ngokukhawuleza ngokwenza iinqanawa zayo zijikeleze iCape of Good Hope, ekwincam esemazantsi eAfrika, ukuze zidlule kuloo mqobo. Ngaphandle kokongezwa malunga neemayile zaselwandle ezimalunga nama-3,500 kunye nexesha elongeziweyo lokuhamba ukuya kutsho kwiiveki ezimbini, le ntshukumo icwangcisiweyo yenza ukuba kuqhubeke ukuhamba kwempahla.
Ngexesha elinzima kakhulu imithwalo yolwandle kuba yinto engenakwenzeka, amashishini anokuthathela ingqalelo ezinye iindlela zothutho ezifana nokuthuthwa ngomoya okanye ngololiwe. Umzekelo, uthutho lukaloliwe lunokuba yindlela eyongayo kwaye engenamngcipheko kwimpahla engafuni ukuhanjiswa ngokukhawuleza. Ngokukodwa kwimimandla efana neYurophu neAsia, uthungelwano lukaloliwe lubonelela ngeziseko ezingundoqo zokuhambisa iimpahla phakathi kwezixeko namazwe.
Amaziko okuhanjiswa kwemimandla
Enye indlela yokuba amashishini alawule ngokuqhubekayo isiphithiphithi se-geopolitical kukuguqula uthungelwano lweenqanawa lwamazwe ngamazwe ukuze luquke amaziko okusasaza engingqi (RDCs). Ezi ndawo zogcino/zokusasaza zibekwe ngobuchule ziyilelwe ukwamkela, ukugcina, nokusasaza iimpahla kwindawo echaziweyo yejografi.
Ngee-RDCs, ishishini linokunciphisa ngokufanelekileyo ukuxhomekeka kwalo kwiindlela ezihamba ngenqanawa zamazwe ngamazwe. Ukubonisa esi sicwangciso-qhinga, cinga ngenkampani ethumela ngaphandle izinto ezahlukeneyo ze-elektroniki kubaboneleli abaseMpuma nakuMzantsi-mpuma weAsia nakuMbindi Yurophu.
Esikhundleni sokuthembela kwiindlela zokuthumela ngokuthe ngqo ukusuka kule mimandla ukuya kwikomkhulu labo e-US, eli shishini linokukhetha ukuseka i-RDC kwindawo enokuqhagamshelwa ngokufanelekileyo kwempahla ukuya kuMntla Melika naseYurophu-njengeSingapore okanye eMzantsi Korea. Nje ukuba iinxalenye ezahlukeneyo zidityanisiwe kwi-Asian RDC, zinokuthunyelwa e-US ngendlela ekhuselekileyo nekhuselekileyo yothutho njengeNdlela yeStrait yeMalacca.
Iindawo zorhwebo zasimahla
Izicwangciso zokunciphisa esiye saxoxa ngazo ukuza kuthi ga ngoku ikakhulu zijongana nemingcipheko yokungazinzi kwezopolitiko ezinokukhokelela kwimiqobo okanye isoyikise iindlela zokuthumela ngenqanawa. Nangona kunjalo, njengoko kukhankanyiwe ekuqaleni kwesithuba, uxinzelelo lwe-geopolitical lungabonakalisa njengeerhafu kunye neerhafu ezibekwe ngoorhulumente.
Kule meko, isicwangciso esisebenzayo kukusebenzisa imimandla yorhwebo yasimahla (FTZs), eziziindawo ezichongiweyo zejografi apho iimpahla zinokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe, ziphathwe, kwaye ziphinde zithunyelwe kumazwe angaphandle phantsi kwemimiselo ekhethekileyo yezithethe.
Ngokuqhelekileyo, imisebenzi kunye neerhafu zihlehliswa de iimveliso ziphuma kwi-FTZ kwaye zingene kwimarike yasekhaya. Nangona kunjalo, ukuba iimpahla zithunyelwa ngaphandle kwakhona ukusuka kwi-FTZ ngaphandle kokungena kwimarike yasekhaya, banokudlula ngokupheleleyo kwimirhumo kunye neerhafu.
Masithathele ingqalelo imeko ecingelwayo apho ngenxa yengxaki ye-geopolitical, i-United States ithatha isigqibo sokuhlawulisa iirhafu eziphezulu kwiimoto ezisuka eYurophu. Kwimeko enjalo, umenzi wemoto waseJamani unokunciphisa ezi mpembelelo zerhafu ngokusebenzisa i-FTZ yaseMexico, ilizwe eligcina izivumelwano zorhwebo ezikhethekileyo kunye ne-US.
Umenzi waseJamani unokungenisa iinxalenye zeemoto ezivela eJamani okanye kwamanye amazwe aseYurophu kwi-FTZ yaseMexico. Ngaphakathi kwe-FTZ, ezi ndawo zinokugcinwa ngaphandle komthwalo weentlawulo okanye zisetyenziselwa ukudibanisa iimoto. Nje ukuba iimoto zidityaniswe ngaphakathi kwe-FTZ yaseMexico, zinokuphinda zithunyelwe e-United States ngexabiso elincitshisiweyo okanye elingu-zero.
Yamkela imingcipheko yokuthumela ngenqanawa yehlabathi lethu elinesiphithiphithi
Ngaphandle kwawo onke amanyathelo okukhusela kunye nezicwangciso zokunciphisa, kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuba siphila kwihlabathi eliguqukayo apho ukuxhatshazwa kwe-geopolitical okungalindelekanga kunokuqhuma phakathi kobusuku nemini. Eyona nto iphambili yokuthathwa kukuba amashishini kufuneka alandelele imeko ye-geopolitical ngenkuthalo kwaye anciphise ukuvezwa komngcipheko ukuze aqinisekise ukuba iimveliso zawo zinokusuka kwindawo A ukuya kwindawo B, nokuba kwenzeka ntoni emhlabeni.
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