The global energy transition has lost momentum in the face of increasing uncertainty worldwide, according to a new World Economic Forum (WEF) report. While 107 of the 120 countries benchmarked in the report demonstrated progress on their energy transition journeys in the past decade, the overall pace of the transition has slowed and balancing its different facets remains a key challenge.
Economic volatility, heightened geopolitical tensions and technological shifts have all had an impact, complicating its speed and trajectory. There is, however, some reason for optimism, according to the report, with increasing global investments in renewables and significant growth in energy transition performance in sub-Saharan Africa over the past decade.
De 14th annual edition of the Forum’s report, Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2024, published in collaboration with Accenture, uses the Energy Transition Index (ETI) to benchmark 120 countries on the performance of their current energy systems, with a focus on balancing equity, environmental sustainability and energy security, and on their transition-readiness. New this year to the report are “tailored pathways” for analyzing country-specific characteristics, including income level and local energy resources, to provide region-specific recommendations.
ETI 2024 Scores. Europe continues to lead the ETI rankings, with the top 10 list for 2024 fully composed of countries from that region. Sweden (1) and Denmark (2) top the rankings, having both placed in the top three countries each year for the past decade. They are followed by Finland (3), Switzerland (4) and France (5). These countries benefit from high political commitment, strong investments in research and development, expanded clean energy adoption—accelerated by the regional geopolitical situation, energy-efficiency policies and carbon pricing. France is a new entrant in the top five, with recent energy-efficiency measures reducing energy intensity in the past year.
Van de G20-economieën sluiten Duitsland (11), Brazilië (12), het Verenigd Koninkrijk (13), China (17) en de Verenigde Staten (19) zich aan bij Frankrijk in de ETI-top 20, samen met nieuwkomers Letland (15) en Chili (20), die werden gestimuleerd door de toename van de capaciteit voor hernieuwbare energie.
China en Brazilië hebben de afgelopen jaren aanzienlijke vooruitgang geboekt, voornamelijk dankzij langetermijninspanningen om het aandeel schone energie te vergroten en de betrouwbaarheid van hun netwerk te vergroten. De voortdurende toewijding van Brazilië aan waterkracht en biobrandstoffen, de recente vooruitgang op het gebied van zonne-energie, samen met initiatieven die zijn toegesneden op het creëren van nieuwe kansen, zijn van cruciaal belang geweest bij het aantrekken van investeringen. In 2023 heeft China ook zijn capaciteit voor hernieuwbare energie aanzienlijk opgeschaald en bleef het groeien en investeren in zijn productiecapaciteit in schone technologieën zoals batterijen voor elektrische voertuigen, zonnepanelen, windturbines en andere kritische technologieën. China loopt, samen met de VS en India, ook voorop in de ontwikkeling van nieuwe energieoplossingen en -technologieën.
The gap in overall ETI scores has narrowed between advanced and developing economies and the “center of gravity” of the transition is moving to developing countries. However, clean energy investment continues to be concentrated in advanced economies and China. This underscores the need for financial support from advanced nations to facilitate an equitable energy transition in emerging and developing nations and forward-thinking policy-making in all nations to foster truly conducive investment conditions, WEF says. As no universal solution exists, policies could be tailored to each country’s unique needs, based on factors such as income level, national energy resources and needs, as well as regional context.
Top 20 Countries in ETI 2024. Global average ETI scores reached a record high. However, the slowdown in the pace of the global energy transition, first identified in 2022, has intensified in the past year. The 2024 report shows that the three-year improvement in global ETI scores between 2021-2024 is almost four times less than the upswing over the 2018-2021 period. Furthermore, the report indicates that 83% of countries achieved lower scores than last year on at least one of the primary performance dimensions of the energy transition: sustainability, equity and security.
Terwijl de wereld nog steeds niet op koers ligt om de ambities van een netto-nulpunt in 2050 te verwezenlijken en de opwarming van de aarde tot niet meer dan 1.5 graden Celsius te beperken, zoals gevraagd in de Overeenkomst van Parijs, is er opmerkelijke vooruitgang geboekt op het gebied van de energie-efficiëntie en is er sprake van een duidelijke toename in de toepassing van schone energiebronnen. Het momentum van de energietransitie is vertraagd door tegenslagen in de energie-gelijkheid, als gevolg van de stijgende energieprijzen van de afgelopen jaren. De energiezekerheid wordt nog steeds op de proef gesteld door geopolitieke spanningen.
Innovatie is een cruciale factor voor de energietransitie en kan de kosten verlagen, belangrijke technologieën opschalen, de beroepsbevolking vernieuwen en omscholen en investeringen aantrekken. Ondanks een recente vertraging van de innovatievoortgang en een daling van de wereldwijde investeringen in start-ups in 2023, zijn er gebieden waar de innovatie versnelt, aldus het nieuwe rapport.
Digital innovations, including generative AI, offer significant opportunities to fill this gap and reinvent the energy industry by enhancing productivity. Generative AI’s ability to analyze vast quantities of data can provide innovative forecasts and solutions, or streamline existing operations to increase efficiencies, among other benefits. However, to fully realize this potential, it will be crucial to responsibly and equitably address the risks and challenges posed by these technologies.
The Energy Transition Index provides a data-driven framework to foster understanding of the performance and readiness of global energy systems for the transition. The ETI covers 120 countries in terms of their current energy system performance and transition-readiness and countries are scored across 46 indicators. These countries are selected based on the availability of consistent indicator data at respective sources for more than a minimum number of indicators in each dimension of the index. System performance is equally weighted across equity, security and sustainability.
Transition-readiness is split into two groups: core enablers and enabling factors. Core enablers include regulations and political commitment, and finance and investment. Enabling factors include innovation, infrastructure, and education and human capital. A country’s final ETI score is a composite of its scores on the two sub-indices of system performance and transition-readiness, weighted at 60% and 40% respectively.
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